The reality of the Russian threat agitated by France

While Emmanuel Macron has just announced a larger budgetary effort than expected for the armed forces. Similarly, the French chief of staff assured last Friday that Russia had “identified France as its main opponent in Europe”. Furthermore, An assertion to qualify despite an unprecedented context in Europe since the Cold War. Meanwhile,

“It was not I who said it, it was Russia”. Furthermore, Thus spoke the French chief of staff. Nevertheless, Thierry Burkhard, Friday July 11, after having explained that France was openly designated by Moscow as “His main opponent in Europe”. The formula. Furthermore, pronounced coldly and resulting from a rare speaking at this level, prepares the ground for the budgetary announcements of the Head of State, who in this context of threats, confirmed his desire to accelerate the increase in the means available to the Ministry of the Armed Forces.

To judge the reality of the Russian threat, naturally subject to interpretation, let’s look at the facts at our disposal. Similarly, If a good number of recent declarations of the Russian president. his entourage leave no doubt about the hostility displayed by Moscow towards France, and more broadly, the Europeans and the member reality russian threat agitated france countries of NATO, no declaration by Vladimir Putin specifically designates France as “His main opponent in Europe”. The master of the Kremlin did not fail. on the other hand, to attack the countries which arise Ukraine and provide military support to kyiv in his war with Russia. France is one of them. Threats repeatedly uttered by the Russian president. by his spokesperson, by members of his government and his party, or by the propagandists who flood the television sets.

To these verbal threats. are added more concrete offensives, in the cyber field or the information field (with computer attacks), but also at sea (submarines crossing in the Mediterranean) or in the air (passage over the so-called “strategic” bombers). And a massive extension of Russia’s military capacities, already among the most powerful in the world. Moscow. whose army has been carrying out a war for more than three years in Ukraine, reality russian threat agitated france launched a vast operation to renew its forces, with in particular the objective of reaching staff of 1.5 million men in 2030. Russia also largely increased its military spending. Estimated at $ 146 billion per year currently, but about 400 billion per year, according to a recent study which analyzes investments with purchasing power parity. By way of comparison, these expenses represent around 60 billion in France, and nearly 1,000 billion in the United States.

An effort that has been accompanied by an almost entirely turned economy to war since 2022. and with a very important production capacity: Russia thus manufactures nearly 1,800 combat tanks per year, against fifty for large European countries gathered, according to a report by the Kiel Institute and the Bruegel Institute, which refers. Report which also believes that to reduce the Russian military advantage. the production of land defense systems should be multiplied by three reality russian threat agitated france to six in Europe.

Despite this set of elements, the Russian threat must also be nuanced. First of all because this substantial military effort should not make us forget the economic difficulties of Russia. weakened by the weight of sanctions. And because the propaganda of Moscow. as massive as it is, does not mean that Russia has the means of its ambitions. When German information estimated at the start of the year that “Russian forces will be able to attack NATO at the end of this decade“. The French Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, had himself replied that our intelligence services”Don’t say that“.

Seen from Europe. France, dominates the conviction that the Kremlin will not be able, or will not want, getting out of a warrior logic which today shapes the organization of Russian society, and its economy. This is an element that weighs. is based on a reality russian threat agitated france certain number of arguments, but which remains subject to interpretation. Russian inclinations finally take on a different magnitude because they are mainly part of a context of unprecedented fragility. for the European continent. Europe faces the risk of American disengagement. and the decline in international law which sees certain states acting with less than “Strategic restraint”. All in a very constrained budgetary context to upgrade calibrated armies in recent decades for a pacified environment.