Russian advance in Ukraine, a “windfall effect” at 48 hours from the Trump-Putin meeting

Ukraine – 48 hours from the summit between Donald Trump Vladimir Putin, supposed to lead to peace, should we fear a major Russian breakthrough in Ukraine? The Kremlin claimed this Wednesday, August 13, taking two new localities in the Donetsk region on Wednesday, August 13, in the east of Ukraine: Nykanorivka and Souvorové.

Before that, Tuesday August 12, kyiv had recognized the advance of Russian troops not far from there, in the Pokrovsk area, a mining city in the Donetsk region considered to be the epicenter of fights in this part of the territory.

According to data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), between August 11 and 12, Russia has completed its greatest advance in 24 hours for more than a year. Usually, “The Russians progress on average a few hundred meters a day”note Ulrich BOUNAT, geopolitologist specializing in war in Ukraine, interviewed by the HuffPost. Here, there is a question of ten kilometers in one day. “It’s colossal”assure l’expert. “This illustrates the position of weakness in which Ukraine is at the moment, with a terrible lack of men on the ground”he continues.

For the time being, the contours of the operation have not been detailed by the Russian authorities, making it impossible to know if we are witnessing a real decline in the Ukrainian front. “We do not know how many men have managed to cross the lines, nor how they are equipped”explains Ulrich Bounat, according to whom he is besides “Relatively unusual for Russia” to communicate so laconically on this type of advance.

Highly strategic area

On the other hand, we know that the targeted area is highly strategic. The breach formed on August 12 by Russia “Is between two of Ukraine’s last platforms in the region: Pokrovsk and Kostlantynivka. This advance could therefore allow Russia to complete the encirclement of these two localities and to isolate them more ”deciphers the researcher.

With this operation, it is also “Possible that Russian forces have reached the road that connects Dobropillia to Kramastorsk, one of the main logistics hubs” From the Ukrainian army, warns Ulrich Bounat. “Beyond its logistical interest, this route was also thought of by Ukraine as a second front line, a kind of folding line, particularly protected. If the Russians reach it, this can unbalance the entire defensive system ” Ukrainian, estimates the specialist.

The moment chosen to lead this offensive is also heavy with meaning. Friday, August 15, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin must meet in Alaska to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine, initiated by the Russian offensive in 2022. A discussion that will be done without European allies, and without Ukraine, despite the repeated requests of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to have a siege at the negotiating table.

“Show the world that his army is unstoppable”

If the concomitance between the approach of peace negotiations and the acceleration of the Russian advance the front may seem contradictory, it is in reality a predictable situation. “There is a boon’s effect. Before negotiations for a ceasefire, the two protagonists have every interest in showing that they master the situation on the ground ”explains Ulrich Bounat. “For Vladimir Putin, it is a way of showing the world and Donald Trump that his army is unstoppable and that if the West wants a ceasefire, we will have to make as many concessions as possible”continue l’expert.

In addition, getting your hands on new territories before a possible ceasefire is of certain interest in Russia since there is “The deep conviction that all the conquered territories will remain on the Russian side”Pointe Ulrich Bounat. A claim to which Ukraine has always opposed.

“Russia wants to suggest that it can get all of Ukraine. However, it’s bluff “reacted President Zelensky this Wednesday during a press briefing. “Putin does not want peace, Putin wants to occupy us”he added.