Six months after Donald Trump’s entry into office, his assault against world trade has lost all similar to organization or structure.
He changed the dates suddenly. He failed negotiations at the last minute, often raising unexpected issues. He has linked his customs duties to grievances that have nothing to do with trade, such as the treatment reserved by Brazil to his former president, Jair Bolsonaro, or the fentanyl flow from Canada.
Translections with the United States were like “a labyrinth” and a return to square one, said Airlangga Hartarto, the Indonesian Minister for Economic Affairs, who met representatives of the United States in Washington on Wednesday.
The resulting uncertainty prevents businesses and countries from making projects, because global trade rules give way to chaos.
“We are still far from concluding real agreements,” said Carsten Brzeski, a world manager of macroeconomics at ING Bank in Germany.
He described the uncertainty of “poison” for the world economy.
The idea that the White House would conclude 90 agreements in 90 days after a period of rapid negotiations, as Mr. Trump had promised in April, disappeared. Instead, Washington has signed summary agreements with large trade partners, including China, while sending many other countries severe and most standardized letters announcing the application of customs duties high from 1is august.
PHOTO PILAR OLIVARES, REUTERS
The port of Rio de Janeiro, in Brazil
Political decision -makers in Indonesia, Japan and elsewhere have only read the letters fixing customs duties when Mr. Trump published them on social networks. Mr. Airlangga said he was “amazed and surprised” to note that his country would be subject to customs duties of 32 %, without change compared to what had been announced in April. However, he believed that the negotiations had gone well.
Damage limitation
Trade partners who have received such letters are now striving to reduce the specific rates to each country, which range from 20 % to 50 %, although Mr. Trump has hinted at certain times that the negotiation margin could be limited.
For those who have not yet received a letter – Mr. Trump hinted Thursday that that of the European Union (EU) was imminent – the evolution of the situation underlined the precariousness of the negotiations. Trade agreements seem to depend on a single person, Trump, and even carefully developed agreements can be called into question on a whim from Mr. Trump.
“People consider this to be an exercise in limiting damage,” explains Andrew Small, principal researcher at the German Marshall Fund, who worked until recently as an advisor within the EU executive body.
Kush Desai, spokesperson for the White House, said that some countries were continuing to make concessions eagerly to keep their access to the American economy.
Trump clearly said the United States, as the largest and cheaper consumer market in the world, “hold cards and influence in negotiations,” he said.
However, even the conclusion of a trade agreement may not alleviate uncertainty. Earlier this month, Trump proclaimed on social networks that he had concluded a trade agreement with Vietnam which would impose customs duties of 20 % on Vietnamese products and higher customs duties of 40 % on certain products containing Chinese components.
“In return, Vietnam will do something that he has never done before, giving the United States of America full access to its markets for trade,” he said.
But the two countries have never published a joint declaration clarifying what they had agreed. Three people by the way, who refused to be appointed since the exchanges are confidential, said that Vietnamese officials had not accepted the customs duties announced by Mr. Trump and that negotiations were underway.
Two of these people indicated that the two countries had reached a trade agreement, but that when Mr. Trump spoke on the phone with the Vietnamese secretary general to Lam on July 2, he took on him to renegotiate some of these terms, which surprised the officials of both parties.
An official of the White House, who refused to be appointed because he was not allowed to speak publicly on the subject, said that the Americans and the Vietnamese had reached an agreement. But he did not want to give more details, simply adding that the two parties continued to discuss details of the higher customs duties for products containing Chinese components and that they had agreed to negotiate them more in depth later.
Photo Focke Strangmann, Agence France-Presse Archives
Automobiles ready to export to the port of Bremerhaven, Germany in Germany
Take the example of the EU, which is, according to certain criteria, the main trading partner of the United States. The 27 Member States work at the conclusion of an agreement which would likely include basic customs duties of 10 %, with exemptions for key products.
In return, the EU would undertake to buy more in the United States and to invest more in this country.
However, the EU has long refused to say that it considered that an agreement was likely. Even before Mr. Trump announces, during an interview with the NBC channel on Thursday, that the EU would soon receive his own letter, European political leaders remained aware that the situation could degenerate.
The example of Canada
This is partly explained by warning that is the case of Canada. Negotiations were interrupted for 48 hours at the end of June due to the digital services tax, which would have been applied to large American technological companies. Trump said that he would not continue negotiations if the tax remained in force, and the Canadian government quickly abandoned it.
Canada was negotiating an agreement before the deadline established on July 21 when, Thursday, it also received a letter announcing customs duties of 35 % and a new deadline set at 1is august.
Canada was not the only last -minute surprise.
On Wednesday, the United States plunged into a sudden trade war with Brazil after Mr. Trump announced, in a letter addressed to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva, that 50 % customs duties would come into force 1is august.
“The way Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a very respected leader worldwide during his mandate, including by the United States, is an international shame,” said Trump.
A few hours later, Lula said Brazil would retaliate with customs duties. “Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions which will not accept to be abused by anyone,” he said in a statement.
This article was published in the New York Times.
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