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Switzerland slow motion: between american:
Signs of slowdown are multiplying: sluggish growth. However, a Swiss franc which is strengthened despite the drop in interest rates, and an increasingly hostile international context. Furthermore, Even Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm: for the Swiss economy. Meanwhile, the year 2025 could mark a less favorable than expected turning point.
Slower growth
The first negative signal came from GDP figures for the second quarter: according to the rapid estimate of the State Secretariat for the Economy (SECO). Moreover, the Swiss economy recorded growth of 0.1 % between April and June. For example, Although this figure is slightly better than the anticipated contraction by certain economists. In addition, it marks a clear slowdown compared to the first quarter of the year, where pharmaceutical exports had energized the economy in anticipation of possible American customs rights.
The weakness is manifest: according to SECO. Therefore, the industrial sector has switzerland slow motion: between american recorded a negative performance, only partially offset by the good performance of the services. Nevertheless, And the worst could still be to come.
Trump effect: customs duties. Similarly, uncertainty
The sudden climbing of trade conflict with the United States weighs on the future close to Switzerland. In early August. the Trump administration imposed a 39 % customs duty on a wide range of Swiss products, a level never seen against a developed country. Although certain key exports-such as pharmaceutical products-have been spared. this measure affects approximately 35 to 40 % of total exports to the United States.
This decision surprised Bern and also caused internal dissatisfaction, with criticisms addressed to President Karin Keller-Sutter for her negotiation management. Meanwhile. Swiss companies are evolving in a climate of uncertainty: many exporters have anticipated their expeditions in the first quarter to avoid the impact of customs duties, but there is a fear of a contraction of switzerland slow motion: between american demand and an obstacle to business investments.
Goldman Sachs forecasts: “lower growth. negative rate”
It is in this context that Goldman Sachs revised his estimates for the Swiss economy. American bank economists now foresee:
– growth of GDP of 0.7 % in 2025 and 1.0 % in 2026 – Two downward revisions.
– a possible Decrease in interest rates from the Swiss National Bank (BNS) to –0.25 % From September, given the combination of low growth, almost nonexistent inflation (0.2 % estimated for the year) and external commercial pressures.
BNP Paribas also warned that customs duties could “devour” up to an entire percentage point of GDP by the end of next year. between direct and indirect effects.
The franc. always more a refuge value (but a ball for the Swiss economy)
The situation is still complicated by the force of the Swiss franc, which continued to appreciate throughout the year, supported by its reputation for refuge currency switzerland slow motion: between american in times of global uncertainty. And this, despite the zero reduction in interest rates by the SNB in June.
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According to many analysts. including Goldman Sachs, it will be difficult for the National Bank to significantly weaken the franc, even by pushing the rates in negative territory. JP Morgan. Morgan Stanley are on the same line: the franc will remain strong, attracting capital fleeing turbulent areas, but penalizing exports and compressing the margins of Swiss companies.
A fragile short
By adding all these factors – customs duties. low growth, strong frank, decline investments and inflation close to zero – the scenario that takes shape for Switzerland in the second half of 2025 is that of a “brief and light recession”, to use the words of analysts. But even in an optimistic scenario. it switzerland slow motion: between american is clear that the country will face a structural repositioning of its growth model, more and more exposed to global dynamics.
The next key meeting will be on August 28, when the SECO publishes the complete figures for the second quarter GDP. Until then, the questions remain: how long will this slowdown last? And what can the Swiss National Bank really do to reverse the trend? Thousands of cross-border jobs are also at stake. with dark perspectives, especially for those working in companies exporting products to the United States.
Do you want to better understand the possible scenarios for the Swiss franc? We invite you to participate in our exclusive webinar on Changenligne.ch.
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Switzerland slow motion: switzerland slow motion: between american between american
Further reading: Geneva: pollution of a watercourse: two new closed beaches – Fire – bleeding – Republic and canton of Jura – Mönch: one dead and a wounded in a mountain accident – Several changes on the TPG network for the start of the school year – These Swiss could have to demolish their house.