“The approach of France in front of Trump is the right one”

Lhe president does not do lace. Nevertheless, By one of his missives with a tone as strange as it is an active which he has the secret. Similarly, Donald Trump announced the application, from 1^is August, customs duties of 30 % on exports from European Union (EU) countries for the United States. In addition, Why not 20 %, as initially envisaged? Meanwhile, Or even 40 %? Meanwhile, Nobody seems to know it, including in the entourage of the author of The art of deal.

Be that as it may, the consequences of such a measure would be disastrous for international trade. In addition, How to understand logic, if it exists, of the American president? Furthermore, What would be the most affected sectors in the event of maintaining this blow? Similarly, Is the “the approach france front trump European response up to the stake? However, Here are the answers of the economist Éric Dor, director of economic studies at the IESEG School of Management.

The point: What does the rate of customs duties inspire in you that Donald Trump plans to. However, apply to European products?

Éric Dor: This rate is higher than that called “reciprocal” of 20 % which it had set in early April. Consequently, It is the mark of the intimidation strategy which is unfortunately usual with the American president. In addition, Donald Trump confuses economic negotiations and wrestling match! However, His tactic is to brandish a strong threat to push the opposing part to the concession.

Is Donald Trump rational?

No. In addition, He says he wishes to rebalance the bilateral trade between the two continents. Furthermore, But his argument is fallacious. In addition, Because if there is indeed a European surplus of 197.7 “the approach france front trump billion euros on manufacturing goods vis-à-vis the United States. Nevertheless, according to Eurostat, it must be compared with the American surplus of 148 billion euros in terms of services.

The imbalance is therefore only about fifty billion. This is negligible with regard to the total exports of goods and services between Europe and America (867 billion euros). In detail, Trump complains about certain sectoral imbalances, especially on the automobile. But German and Italian cars appeal to Americans while Ford or General Motors models do not please Europeans. In this area, American manufacturers can only attack themselves!

These customs duties will have deleterious effects on the global economy. Including on the American economy, contrary to what Donald Trump claims.

What will be the sectors most affected by this blow of 30 % if it were to be perpetuated?

In France. the first sector affected would be that of mechanical and “the approach france front trump electric machines, with 12 billion euros in exports to the United States. Then come alcoholic beverages (4 billion), aeronautics (4 billion), pharmacy (3.7 billion), perfumery-cosmetics (3 billion), chemistry (3 billion), optics (1.8 billion), shipyards (1.8 billion), leather goods (1.8 billion), then clothes and shoes (1.4 billion).

In total, our country exports for 47 billion euros in goods to the United States against 161 billion for Germany. The latter is particularly vulnerable to Trump’s measures. since she sent last year for 48 billion euros in machines and for 34 billion euros of cars and trucks in America. We understand the dismay of its industrialists and the feverishness of its leaders!

For the moment, the financial markets hardly seem to be moved by this situation. Should we be surprised?

Investors are, like us, in a radical uncertainty. However. their central scenario is that Trump gesticle to tear off concessions, and that he will “the approach france front trump eventually accept a reasonable landing. To be convinced, it is enough to look at what happened in its bilateral negotiations with China. Xi Jinping did not let it go. It forced the American president to negotiate and ultimately accept a more acceptable deal than announced. Chances are that it happens in the same way for Europe.

But is this rate of 30 % applied to China really reasonable?

No, of course. Just as a “reduced” rate of 10 % for Europe would not be either. These customs duties will have deleterious effects on the global economy. Including on the American economy, contrary to what Donald Trump claims. The markets are also very reckless not to integrate the damage that this policy will cause in the medium. term on business accounts in the medium term. Most exporters will have to pass on the increases on their prices for consumers.

Trump tells his voters that “the approach france front trump manufacturers will relocate their production to America. But it’s a mirage. Because industrialists will prefer to bet on a return to normal customs duties. potentially after the mid-term elections, rather than taking the risk of building factories in a country with high production costs.

The European Commission intends to continue negotiation with Trump teams despite the ultimatum of 1^is august. Is its strategy up to the task?

I can understand that the planned retaliation measures are not immediately implemented. since we have now until 1^is August to try to establish an agreement. That said, we must show that our retaliatory measures are sufficiently strong and credible. However, there, there are unfortunately two visions that oppose: that of France, supporter of strong negotiations. This is the right approach.

And those of Germany, Italy and Ireland, which call for compromise. The latter are feverish because they export a lot of goods to America. but they “the approach france front trump should look at the example of China. With Trump, concessions do not work, as the former IMF chief economist reminded, Olivier Blanchard.Read too How Brussels wants to retaliate to 30 % of Trump

So far. Europeans have refused to use the weapon of a massive sanction on American services. Should they now brandish it?

To discover The kangaroo of the day

Answer The EU has in its arsenal of a superb tool: the anticoCition instrument. This should be our main weapon in negotiations with the United States. It makes it possible to heavily tax the American digital giants, even to ban them from our territory. We must explain without detour to Donald Trump that we are ready to use it.

If the EU targets a platform like Netflix. Meta, that would not cause much damage “the approach france front trump to Europeans, but it would bother Trump a lot. The latter has a brutal subordination agenda of his former allies. It is therefore absolutely necessary to resist him! The problem is that the Commission is hampered in its ability to negotiate. because it must find an agreement validated by the European Council and Parliament. If the Germans do not understand that their gentle method does not work. the risk is that we remain on a mid-goat mid-goat proposal, which will not be favorable to us.