The by -election in Arthabaska, which will be held on August 11, will not change the course of our political life.
It will not have the scope of the partials of Jean-Talon or Terrebonne, who have modified the political trajectory of Quebec in four years, by revealing and confirming the replacement of the CAQ by the PQ as the main nationalist party.
It is also held in almost dishonorable democratic conditions: François Legault did everything to make this summer election insignificant. Between the campsite of some, the barbecues of others, the pool parties and all that in the same genre characterizes the month of August, the voters will not have their heads.
Teaching
And yet, we may be able to learn from it.
The first: how far we will see the CAQ collapsed.
Will Quebecers keep it alive artificially, or have they turned away for good?
And this is a question today to ask: what is a caquist, apart from an employee paid from the CAQ?
Second teaching: will the conservative party of Eric Duhaime finally succeed in a small electoral breakthrough?
Certainly, he does everything to finally be elected.
If he does not succeed, in this context, in a culturally conservative constituency, where will he succeed?
This victory would not announce a conservative wave or even a local or regional wave, it would simply testify to the ability of this party to go beyond the stage of protest impotence.
Éric Duhaime is an intelligent man, but we see that he is conspired by a good part of the electorate, who does not recognize himself in him.
Third teaching: does the PLQ revamped by Pablo Rodriguez succeeded in reconnecting with French-speaking Quebec? We are present for the moment the former lieutenant of Justin Trudeau, ultrafederalist, multiculturalist and immigrationist, as the expected leader capable of taking the plq out of his English -speaking and allophone ghetto. We will have the opportunity to test the value of this theory in a month.
2026
It must be said that the PLQ, to regain power, needs less strategy than patience. The more the weight of French -speaking Quebecers will decrease in Quebec, the more Quebec will be demographically transformed by the accumulation of migratory waves, and the more the PLQ will become the natural party of government. The French -speaking vote will no longer be necessary for him.
Fourth teaching: we will see if the PQ manages to prevail in a constituency which is structurally unfavorable to it and where it is however in good position. The PQ will be the least affected by this partial. If he prevails, we will see another victory, almost predictable. If the conservative party prevails, we will say to the opposite that it should be won one day.
Arthabaska will represent a mixture of large survey and small local referendum. The real political resumption will start in the fall. We will then be a year old from the 2026 elections, which will be decisive for the future of Quebec.