The dollar drops heavily on Friday, weighted by a deterioration of the job market in the United States in July, investors questioning the repercussions of customs duties on American economic activity.
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The unemployment rate increased last month at 4.2 %, according to the monthly report of the Ministry of Labor published on Friday.
The job creations also dropped sharply, at 73,000 in July, less than expected by analysts. Those in May and June have been strongly revised downwards, 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, at the lowest since the Cavid-19 pandemic.
“Customs duties have not yet been truly applied, the weak growth in employment at this early stage is worrying,” is alarmed by Kathleen Brooks, from XTB. She “suggests that the American economy could be in the beginnings of a job shortage”.
The analyst notes that “this data led to a rapid readjustment of interest rate expectations in the United States”: “Last Friday, the probability of a drop in rates by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting was 40 %, compared to 81 % today. »»
Consequently, around 1:35 p.m. GMT (3:35 p.m. in Paris), the American currency fell 1.40 % compared to the euro, to 1.157 8 dollars, and lost 0.72 % against the British book, to 1.330 3 dollars.
The American motto had initially remained in the green despite the decree signed by Donald Trump on Thursday evening, establishing new customs surcharge on products imported into the United States from August 7.
Switzerland received customs duties of 39 %, much more than what had been promised to it in April (31 %), which had sealed the Swiss franc at the start of the session.
Canada has also seen its customs surcharge from 25 % to 35 %, except for products which are covered by the North American free trade agreement.
For other countries, the surcharge displayed is that agreed after months of negotiations with Washington, as 15 % for the European Union and Japan, or 10 % for the United Kingdom.
Before the publication of the employment report, Derek Halpenny, of MUFG, already provided that “customs duties will have a negative impact on the dollar in the long term, because they impact American growth,” and encourage diversification “of investors to other currencies and assets.
The dollar index, which compares the American currency to a basket of other large currencies, indicates that it has lost about 9 % since the start of the year.
Inflation also continued its rebound in June in the United States, including 2.6 % over a year, according to the PCE index published Thursday.
Friday lessons | Thursday lesson
13 H 35 GMT 21 H GMT
EUR/USD 1,157 8 | 1,141 5
EUR/JPY 171,39 | 172,08
EUR/CHF 0,931 3 | 0,927 3
EUR/GBP 0,870 3 | 0,864 2
USD/JPY 148,03 | 150,75
USD/CHF 0,804 3 | 0,812 3
GBP/USD 1,330 3 | 1,320 7