The Confederation expects a significantly lower deficit than expected for this year. The loss should be 200 million francs, while the 2025 budget provided 800 million. For the Confederation, this result does not however question the savings program.
This improvement is mainly explained by a clear increase in tax revenue, in particular those of direct federal tax, the Federal Council said on Wednesday. As they “exceeded expectations” last year, their estimate was revised upwards 1.5 billion for 2025.
The profit tax benefits “strongly” benefits additional revenues for 2022 and 2023 from the Energy and Raw Materials in Geneva. Some 900 million are expected for 2025, estimates the government, specifying that it is a “unique and temporary” phenomenon. Conversely, the VAT product should drop by 200 million.
Europe envelope
Ordinary spending is expected to increase by 200 million, mainly due to additional credits requested during the year. This is particularly the case with the 6666 million envelope approved for the participation in the EU framework program for research and innovation, of which Horizon Europe is a part.
This is the first time since the introduction in 2003 of the debt brake that ordinary expenses could exceed the budgetary amount, says the government.
In the end, the ordinary budget should present a surplus of funding of 700 million, instead of the deficit of 500 million planned, according to the extrapolation of the Federal Council. Ie a difference of 1.2 billion francs.
Saved economy plan
Despite these good results, there is no question of questioning the savings program. “This does not change the fact that, without the implementation of the budget relief program 27, we should expect deficits of several billion for the years of the financial plan,” writes the Federal Finance Department (DFF).
The extraordinary budget has deteriorated. This is due to a single payment of 850 million francs intended to stabilize the finances of the SBB. Extraordinary revenues expected are also greater than the budget (+ 200 million) thanks to the additional amount distributed for the benefit of the SNB.
No Trump effect for 2025
For the Federal Council, customs duties of 39% imposed by the United States on Swiss products should not have “significant” consequences on federal finances this year.
It is currently difficult to predict how Swiss companies will react to this situation. However, it is their behavior that will determine the impact of customs duties for next year, in particular on expenditure linked to partial unemployment and the product of VAT. We must also expect late spinoffs on the level of federal revenues expected in the medium term.
ats/cab