Keystone-SDA
The evolution that the Swiss economy in the second quarter has been known is subject to projections for the less divergent on the part of economists consulted by the AWP agency.
(Keystone-ATS) Only point of convergence, the bright progression of the gross domestic product (GDP) observed over the first three months of the year will have long.
Forecasts for the period from April to the end of June range between a contraction of 0.3% and an increase of the same magnitude, while the Swiss economy had coated by 0.8% between January and the end of March.
Economists pointed to an anticipation effect of threats to apply customs barriers by the Trump administration on shipments to the United States. Threats since greatly materialized, with indiscriminate customs duties of 10% from April, noted for Swiss products specifically at 39% in early August.
Stabilization hopes
It remains to be seen in this context if the domestic demand will have played the stabilizing role, between recovery of the construction activity and support of a low inflation rate at household consumption expenses, hoped by the State Secretariat for the Economy (SECO) in mid-June.
Federal economists, on the other hand, foresee that the weight of the trade conflict would be felt on exports throughout 2025 and warned that a revival of global growth – synonymous with air call for Swiss exports – was not expected before 2026.
Since then, the KOF cyclical study center has quoted the impact on the Swiss economy of the rate of 39% applied by the Trump administration between 0.3% to 0.6% in 2025. This “would cost each Swiss on average 300 francs”, calculated Zurich -style academic economists. In the worst scenarios, GDP could even go back by 1% and a recession should not be excluded.