The evolution of the Swiss economy in the second quarter is subject to divergent projections on the part of economists consulted by the AWP agency. Only point of convergence, the progression of GDP in the first three months of the year will have long.
Forecasts for the period from April to the end of June range between a contraction of 0.3% and an increase of the same magnitude, while the Swiss economy had coated by 0.8% between January and the end of March.
Economists pointed to an anticipation effect of threats to apply customs barriers by the Trump administration on shipments to the United States. Threats since greatly materialized, with indiscriminate customs duties of 10% from April, noted for Swiss products specifically at 39% in early August.
It remains to be seen in this context if the domestic demand will have played the stabilizing role, between rectification of the construction activity and support of a low inflation rate for household consumption expenses, hoped by the State Secretariat for the Economy (SECO) in mid-June.
Federal economists, on the other hand, foresee that the weight of the trade conflict would be felt on exports throughout 2025 and warned that a revival of global growth – synonymous with air call for Swiss exports – was not expected before 2026.
Since then, the KOF cyclical studies center has estimated the impact on the Swiss economy of the rate of 39% applied by the Trump administration between 0.3% to 0.6% in 2025. This “would cost each Swiss on average 300 francs”, calculated the Zurich academic economists. In the worst scenarios, GDP could even go back by 1% and a recession should not be excluded.
This article was published automatically. Sources: ATS / AWP