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In December 2019, Ursula von der Leyen returned to Brussels, the city where she spent her childhood, with the assurance of a centrist and the promise of a visionary.
The Green Deal was at the center of its first presidency, offering climate hope and a surprisingly collaborative touch, flanked by the Danish executive vice-president Margrethe Vestager and Frans Timmermans, the Dutch socialist-the co-stars of its overall distribution.
It was season 1.
But at the dawn of the second season, those who followed his first mandate may wonder if they still watch the same program.
Or at least they wonder if the main character has not been replaced by a double.
What happened? Does Ursula von der Leyen suffer from an identity crisis or does she simply call on the political metamorph that dies in her?
A different style, different priorities
The new Ursula von der Leyen seems to be a pragmatic, even Machiavellian political realist.
This development towards centralization can be attributed largely to his powerful chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, a skillful puppeteer who skillfully draws the strings from power within Berlaymont.
During season 1, Frank-Liter Commissioners such as French Thierry Breton and Luxembourg Nicolas Schmit became critical characters with regard to the decisions of Ms. von der Leyen. These characters have disappeared from the scenario and Ursula went from the role of leader to that of soloist.
More importantly, they were replaced by less publicized allies who are held in the ignorance of key decisions, especially during the presentation of the long -term budget of the EU, where the commissioners would have seen the figures only a few moments before the official curtain rising on the proposal.
Essential priorities have apparently disappeared. There is as an air of political amnesia, or perhaps of strategic dissociation, where the commitments passed are forgotten or excluded.
But what is the real face of Ursula von der Leyen? Is it still the 2019 “green queen” or has it turned into “VDL”, a gray party that consolidates power?
The curious affair of the disappearance of the Green Deal
Let’s go back in 2019, when Mrs. von der Leyen made the “Green Deal” the jewel of her presidency.
At the time, “green” was not only a policy, it was an atmosphere. The “Green Deal” was supposed to transform the European economy, its agriculture and its transport. Today, the atmosphere is no longer there.
Its environmental mission seems more and more distant, even abandoned.
Today, the Green Deal shines by its absence, not only in speeches, but also in official documents. In the new EU long -term budget proposal, for example, the term is not mentioned only once.
Many of his pillars are being dismantled piece by piece.
The most blatant example is the systematic decline in Green Deal initiatives – such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism – through so -called “omnibus” simplification proposals, the latest decline in the proposal for a directive on green allegations – intended to combat eco -balancing.
Even more symbolic is the disappearance of the “farm to the fork” strategy, which formerly constituted the agricultural component of the Green Deal, and which has practically disappeared from speeches, political documents and public messages.
His omission of the “vision for agriculture and food” long awaited by the commission was indeed a discreet burial, making this document less a vision than a funeral praise.
Officially, the Commission remains in denial, but signs of abandonment are impossible to ignore.
The European cancer control plan: a sword in the water?
Green is not the only color to disappear from the palette of Mrs. von der Leyen, which testifies to a change of orientation. In the health file, the blue code is discreet, and a key file is under respiratory assistance.
During her first mandate, Ms. Von Der Leyen defended the European Health Union, with the “defeat cancer” plan as cornerstone. With 4 billion euros on the table, the Commission is committed to carrying out a frontal attack on tobacco, alcohol, asbestos and other risk factors for cancer.
But the dynamics have slowed considerably.
The measures to reduce the consumption of tobacco and alcohol are dead, and regulations formerly priority (such as those governing the use of solar benches) were discreetly abandoned.
The new EU’s budget for health reflects this decline.
In 2024, 115 million euros were allocated specifically to the fight against cancer. In 2025, this sum was reduced to 60 million euros, now covering not only cancer, but also cardiovascular disease and other non -transmitted diseases.
Attention being diverted to preparation for pandemics and other priorities, it is difficult to know what will remain of the initial vision.
And as there are more open files than open financing lines, Brussels initiates wonder: are health promotion and cancer fighting being entrusted to sleeping trainees and relegated to a simple historical page note?
Back to basics: Defense and military power
However, despite the abandonment of ecological and health priorities, Ms. von der Leyen seems more dynamic than ever, but on another front: defense.
A year after the start of his second term, the former German Defense Minister returned to known ground. While the “Green Deal” is moving away, it has taken the geopolitical opportunity to promote a European defense industry.
His former life as a German defense minister being in fashion again (and Frans Timmermans no longer blowing him in green light), Mrs. von der Leyen has resolutely turned to European defense.
An example: the next EU budgetary cycle (which will start in 2028) proposes to multiply by five the funds allocated to La Défense and à l’Espace. The national budgets devoted to defense also increases, under the leadership of the massive invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
The Commission also recently proposed structural changes: reorientation of cohesion funds to defense, relaxation of tax rules to increase military spending, launch of the European competitiveness fund (FEC) and offer of low interest loan within the framework of the SAFE program.
Emphasis is also placed on the simplification of rules relating to defense public procurement and the strengthening of joint research and development initiatives.
To come: a package on military mobility aimed at rationalizing the movements of troops and equipment, and the unveiling of the plans of a real “European Union of Defense”.
While the United States is increasingly focusing on the Indo-Pacific region, the EU faces a test: can it become a credible player in terms of security within NATO? Will Ms. Von Der Leyen’s initiative in defense are bearing its fruit to dissuade potential threats, in particular those of Russia, by 2030?
Verdict: The jury has not yet returned its verdict …
From visionary of the Green Deal to Stratege of Defense, the transformation of Ms. von der Leyen has made everyone shed in Brussels and beyond, and left more than one perplexed.
The contrast between the two terms could not be more marked. Who is the real Ursula von der Leyen?
Is she the environment champion who promised to make Europe the first climate continent? Or the strategist with an iron sting that consolidates its power and refocuses on geopolitical power?
Maybe both. Perhaps one of them really existed. Or maybe neither.
What is clear is that the second mandate is not a simple rehearsal of the same thing: it is a whole new season and a new cast. With the same protagonist bearing the same blazer, but with different habits and mind.
While Brussels is preparing for the next twist, especially with American customs tariffs and budget quarrels, one thing is certain: Ursula von der Leyen plays a different game.
And the rest of Europe? We still do not know if it is a character arc … or a complete restart.