The unemployment rate decreases to 6.9 % in June, in Canada

The Canadian economy surprised economists while 83,000 jobs were created in June, mainly part -time, which has brought the unemployment rate from 7 to 6.9 % to the country.

This was announced on Friday morning Statistics Canada on the occasion of the unveiling of sound data Survey on active population from June 2025.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters did not expect any job creation and discounted an increase of 0.1 % of the unemployment rate, at 7.1 %.

This is the first increase in employment since January in Canada. The employment rate – the proportion of the population aged 15 and over which occupies a job – increased by 0.1 percentage points in June, to 60.9 %.

The employment rate had previously recorded a cumulative drop of 0.3 percentage points in March and April, then it remained stable in May, according to the Federal Agency.

In detail, employment has increased among men aged 25 to 54 ( +62,000; +0.8 %) as well as women in the same age group ( +29,000; +0.4 %). Statistics Canada adds that employment has varied little in people 55 and over.

Employment increases were observed in wholesale and retail trade ( +34,000; +1.1 %) as well as in health care and social assistance ( +17,000; +0.6 %). Employment has decreased in agriculture (-6000; -2.6 %) and has varied little in other sectors.

About 70,000 of the 83,000 jobs created are part -time jobs, specifies Statistics Canada.

Long -term unemployment earns the field

Even if the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.9 % in June in the country, the unemployment rate among young people aged 15 to 24 was maintained at 14.2 % during this period.

The unemployment rate in this category of workers is up 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period a year ago.

Moreover, Statistics Canada relates that the unemployment rate of 15-24 year olds is much higher than the prepaandic average of 10.8 % recorded from 2017 to 2019.

There were 1.6 million unemployed in June, which was almost unchanged from May, but up 128,000 (+9 %) compared to a year earlier.

Regarding long -term unemployment, more than one in five unemployed (21.8 %) was looking for work for 27 weeks or more in June, compared to 17.7 % in June 2024.

At the same time, the rate of launch in June was practically unchanged from the previous year; It remained low compared to the historical averages recorded outside recession periods, according to Statistics Canada.

The proportion of people who occupied a job in May, but who had become unemployed in June due to a layoff was established at 0.5 %, which is similar to the rate observed during the corresponding months of 2024 (0.6 %).

By way of comparison, the corresponding layoff rate was established, on average, at 0.6 % during the period from 2017 to 2019, before the pandemic.

Inflation data in June will be revealed on July 15

Inflation data in June in the country, which will be released by Statistics Canada on July 15, are the latest figures that will help the Bank of Canada decide if it will lower its key rate on July 30.

The central bank maintained its key rate at 2.75 % in June, arguing that uncertainty surrounding the customs duties imposed by the United States was high.

The main economist at CIBC Capital Markets, Katherine Judge, estimates that the Canadian labor market has shown its resilience in June, with the creation of 83,000 jobs, and that this force decreases the probabilities of a decline in the key rate.

For his part, Royce Mendes, head of macrostrategy at Desjardins, argues that inflation data will play a more important role in the Central Bank’s decision with regard to its key rate.

With Reuters information