This Trump decision that worries economists

We know the formula: “When the measurement does not please, we change the thermometer. Donald Trump had to learn it in English. After the publication of poor unemployment figures, the American president chose to dismiss Erika MCENTARFER from his post as head of the employment statistics office, accusing him of having rigged the data. On August 11, he appointed EJ Antoni to this post, a curator and a fervent support, which must be confirmed by the senators. A decision that scares many economists. Jason Furman, economic advisor to Barack Obama at the White House, sounds the alarm in the New York Times.

One of the first decisions of EJ Antoni created the controversy. He announced that the monthly employment report should be suspended. “The appointment of Dr. Antoni caused a phenomenon that I have rarely observed: the unification of economists and experts in politics of all political stripes. Stan Veuger, of the American Enterprise Institute, told Washington Post that “he is totally incompetent and as supporter as it can be”. Similar feelings have been expressed by people affiliated with conservative and libertarian reflection groups, ”says Jason Furman.

Orient the figures

The work statistics office produces the two most important economic reports every month: that on employment and another on inflation based on the consumer price index. As Furman points out, “these two documents are essential to the decision -making of the federal reserve, financial markets and more broadly in the business world”. “A commissioner could suspend the publication of data, like China when she tried to hide high levels of young people. Or, an attempt to overhaul the methodology could end up compromising the reliability of the statistics. (…) If a commissioner changed this practice, he could, for example, ask questions oriented to influence the figures in the direction desired by Trump – which could occur even without deliberate intention of fraud. »»

Barack Obama’s former economic adviser at the White House alerts risks to public opinion. “In the past, conspiracy theories accusing the government of manipulating figures were the result of isolated people and did not seriously gain ground in any political party. But today, threatening to destroy confidence in data, Trump threatens this resource that we consume without thinking about it, like the water we drink. And a world even more detached from the truth will be harmful to all of us. »»