François Legault has long hesitated to do so. But one year from the next electoral campaign, he is preparing to shoot down his last card: a reshuffle. A real one.
It should happen by the Labor Day. This would leave at least two weeks to the ministers to appropriate their files before the start of the school year.
Daring is planned. Almost no one seems indelogable, apart from Christian Dubé, who must finish his health reforms.
Some ministers seem in danger, like Jonatan Julien, Maïté Blanchette Vézina and perhaps also France-Élaine Duranceau. While sure values like Sonia Lebel, Christine Fréchette and Simon Jolin-Barrette could be entrusted with new responsibilities.
Mr. Legault has taken brief summer vacation of two weeks. His return, on Monday, promises to be difficult. On that day, the Coalition Avenir Québec should cash in severe defeat in Arthabaska.
The Council of Ministers will then meet next Wednesday. The next day, there will be a face -to -face caucus – others took place this summer, but from a distance. The chief and his entourage will take the opportunity to check who wants to go to the next campaign.
For the rest, rumors rush.
A reshuffle is not unusual. Despite his difficulties in the polls, Mr. Legault did not want to compel in the last year. It must be said that these exercises often have a modest effect on polls. And they are risky.
First danger: give the impression of wanting to please. Justin Trudeau is a good example. In December, to hang on to his post, he first seemed to want to put forward symbols and wake up constituencies.
Second danger: to make enemies. In 2002, the ministers Guy Chevrette and Jacques Brassard resigned after being ejected from the government. However, Bernard Landry had then tried to please many people. His council of ministers had become the biggest in history, with 36 chairs.
Mr. Legault will be more frugal. In this period of budgetary tightening, he will want to preach by example. He will also try to avoid scattering. With a year to do, the goal is to refocus priorities. The opposite to multiply the sites with an extended team.
A reshuffle is used to revive government action and not to move the needle in the polls, they were pleading in the entourage of the chief a few months ago. This approach will guide the delicate exercise.
By definition, a reshuffle is unpredictable. The scenarios can change until the very last minute. When the game of musical chairs begins, it is unclear how many people will be moved.
Here are still some fairly plausible hypotheses.
Caquists have more than doubled the infrastructure budget. To manage it, a position as minister responsible for infrastructure was created. His holder, Jonatan Julien, did not shine. Delays at Maisonneuve-Rosemont hospital has become a national symbol. One wonders why the modest sum of 85 million lacked to launch the work last spring, while the money was raining elsewhere. Similar problems are observed among others in Gatineau, Malbaie and Mont-Laurier.
Maïté Blanchette Vézina almost unanimously against her with her reform of the forest regime. She is even repudiated by the researcher supposed to have inspired her. Only the industry supports it.
In housing, France-Élaine Duranceau quickly made enemies because of insensitive declarations. Internally, some argue that it is above all a communication problem, and that its assessment is positive – we are talking about the start -ups that increase. The fact remains that with the glaring lack of housing, the minister does not have the right to make mistakes.
The SAAQCLIC fiasco tainted the last Caquist session. Éric Caire has already had to resign. It will be necessary to monitor what will happen to François Bonnardel, who was in transport during part of the cost exceeding. His integrity was not questioned, and the general auditor did not conclude anything on his personal responsibility. But at least, he failed to prevent these slippages. Will this faithful lieutenant of Mr. Legault pay the price?
Another thorny file, the third link. Geneviève Guilbault burns his credibility by rehearsing herself repeatedly on this highly hypothetical project. If it is replaced by a person who continues to claim that the tunnel bridge will be built, the problem for the CAQ will remain whole.
Conversely, stars seem ripe for new challenges. Sonia Lebel stands out for its efficiency. On the treasure, she works in the shadows, however. Another mission would make it possible to make better use of your talents. Christine Fréchette took braid. The Minister of Economy is a safe bet, if a major ministry is released.
Simon Jolin-Barrette succeeds in carrying out several reforms in parallel, and in realizing them. Even if his constitutional and nationalist projects occupy him, he could be called in reinforcement elsewhere.
Eric Girard has been in finances for almost seven years. His window for a federal career has closed, at least in the short term. In March 2024, he was surprised by speaking of the person who was succeeding him – according to him, it will be a woman. Is it ready to give way?
Other ministers have already spent more time than expected at their post. Benoit Charette (Environment), Caroline Proulx (Tourism), André Lamontagne (Agriculture) and Andrée Laforest (municipal affairs) do the same job since 2018. The danger: falling on the automatic pilot. The temptation will be great to replace some of them in order to get a fresh look.
And finally, there are those waiting for their turn. No star seems essential. Rather unknown deputies like Yves Montigny, Amélie Dionne, Samuel Poulin or Mathieu Lévesque are estimated by their peers. But the promoted will be few, if there are any. It will be necessary to limit the size of the Council of Ministers and respect the balance of the regions.
Exercise will be a headache. He demonstrates that the Prime Minister wants to go to the next electoral campaign. It remains to be seen whether the reshuffle will raise his government enough to allow him to believe, at the end of the year, that he is the best captain.