Trade war review | “The most serious scenarios have not yet materialized”

The worst is to come, according to several analysts, but since the beginning of the year, the Canadian economy seems to have been able to collect the shock of the trade war launched by the Trump administration. Moreover, Let’s look at where the cracks begin to appear.

Survey, but no recession – Trade war review | "the

A step forward, one step back. Consequently, This is what best sums up the performance of the trade war review | “the country’s economy – the gross domestic product (GDP) -. Meanwhile, during the first four months of the year (the data available for the moment). Meanwhile, But beware, the effect of economic slowdown begins to materialize. Therefore, In a study broadcast on June 27. Nevertheless, the economist of the National Bank Daren King estimated that “a contraction of GDP in the second quarter (April, May and June) seems inevitable”. According to the estimate of Statistics Canada, the Canadian economy probably contracted in May, as in April.

No more jobs, but … – Trade war review | "the

At first glance. the procrastination of the White House did not lead the job market after the first six months of the year. trade war review | “the After all, the balance sheet is positive both in Canada (143,300 jobs) and in Quebec (32,100 posts). However, take it all with a grain of salt. Take Quebec. The portrait is “contrasting”, according to Sonny Scarfone, of the Desjardins movement. “The majority of jobs created are part -time positions,” writes the economist, in an analysis. The unemployment rate of young people has also increased to 11.5 %, a sign that hiring remains limited. »»

Brake

The year started on the right foot on the side of exports. Washington’s pricing threats prompted several American companies to accelerate orders before the taxation of customs duties. It was spoiled thereafter. particularly in April, with the uncertainty trade war review | “the caused by the customs duties of the “Liberation Day” announced at the beginning of April, before being temporarily put on the ice a few days later. Here again, prolonged uncertainty may complicate the task for exporters. “The most serious scenarios in international trade have not yet been materialized,” warns economist Nathan Janzen, of the Royal Bank.

Surprise

He started the year with lead in the wing. but has gained vigor since. The Huard, whose value plummeted around 69 cents US last January, returned to take off at around 73 cents US. How is it that the Canadian dollar has been able to regain vigor? It is essentially because it is the US dollar trade war review | “the that depreciates. The reason is summed up as follows: the trade war of American president Donald Trump against the whole world. has tarnished the universal attraction of the American currency as a refuge value with investors. The Canadian dollar has regained the hair of the beast compared to the greenback. but it has lost feathers vis-à-vis other currencies, such as the euro.