Nevertheless,
War peace trump:
After the first salvo of customs duties drawn on April 2 against the whole world. Similarly, the great negotiator threatened the European Union (EU) and Mexico on July 12 of a customs surcharge of 30%. In addition, The French wine sector fears the worst, as it was scalded by the flies of customs duties set up in 2019.
For each threatened country, Donald Trump deploys various and varied arguments, pretexts that often have no connection with the economy. Consequently, Mexico is thus accused of not doing enough to prevent the routing of synthetic drugs. In addition, in particular fentanyl, to the United States. Therefore, A few days earlier. Similarly, Trump had threatened Brazil with a 50% increase in customs duties, to denounce the way in which his ex-allié Jair Bolsonaro, tried for alleged coup attempt, was.
As for the European Union. Trump conditions the revision of these new war peace trump customs of customs abandoned by the EU of its “Protectionist measures” and “Obstacles to exchanges”. For example, the health standards (chlorine chicken, hormone beef, etc.) or climate clauses are targeted.
The American agricultural power is crumbling – War peace trump
The other main reason is the will to “Rebalance” The trade balance between the United States. the EU has been declining for years. In twenty years. the trade deficit in the exchange of American goods with the EU has tripled, going from 65 billion euros in 2002 to 198 billion euros in 2024 – far, by the way, the figure of 300 billion euros regularly quoted by Donald Trump.
Also on the agricultural side, the balance is clearly leaning in favor of the old continent. Wines, spirits, cheeses, olive oil … The American agricultural and agrifood deficit vis-à-vis Europe has widened considerably for twenty years, going from 0.5 to 9.2 billion euros.
Traditionally an exporter since the end war peace trump of the Second World War, the powerful American agriculture is now a clear importer. A “decline of the American Empire” which some consider to be undeniably in progress. and which irritates the tenant of the White House at the highest point.
Threats that are no longer scary
The fact remains that the many Trump threats lose their credibility over the president’s backwardlands. This is evidenced by the very moderate reaction of the financial markets after the recent announcements of new taxes on Europe. Mexico. Unlike the shock of April 2. where the American and European stock markets had dropped 4 to 6% (Wall Street having experienced its worst day since the start of the Covid epidemic), the financial centers now seem vaccinated. Trump’s new threats only led to a moderate drop and a relatively contained volatility.
Like wheat which gravitates imperturbably under the 200 euros per tonne despite political storms. weather vagaries, the war peace trump global economy seems increasingly armored to the Trumpian gusts.
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