This long -term trend is not to be taken at the foot of the letter. It is a question of highlighting the most likely weather scenario for the next four weeks, with reliability which becomes more limited over time. The weather trend shows a continuation of hot and very summer conditions until September, despite some thunderstorms.
Week of August 11 to 17: national heat wave, heat wave to the south
A heat wave of national magnitude will continue to concern France during this week, with temperatures often greater than 35 ° C in many regions. The south of the country, notably the South West, will experience a durable scorching episode, with very high minimums and tropical nights. Further north, the heat will also be marked, even if thunderstorms will be able to explode at the end of the day from the middle of the week. The feeling will often be heavy and the atmosphere stifling, especially in large metropolises. An outing of this heat wave is envisaged around August 15 at the end of the week.
North half trend © LCM
Week of August 18 to 24: still hot, but gradually more stormy
The heat will remain present at the start of the week, with values still above normal, especially in the south. Gradually, the atmosphere will become more unstable, with an increasingly marked stormy trend from the middle of the week, in particular on the reliefs and the northern half. These sometimes strong thunderstorms can locally alleviate heat, without ending the summer atmosphere.
Week of August 25 to 31: time again close to the seasonal averages
To this deadline, it becomes difficult to establish a trend. The majority scenario is that of a more classic return to the season, without excess heat. Some disturbances may as often concern the northwest quarter of the country by the English Channel, while it will still be hot and dry in the southern half. It will be necessary to monitor the evolution of drought in these regions, which is likely to become worrying.
South Half Trend © LCM
Week from September 1 to 7: return of a time a priori dry and hot
Reliability is very limited to this deadline. The dry and warm weather could again increase, without this trend being really preponderant. This beginning of September could therefore be part of the continuity of August, namely very summer.
This trend at 4 weeks, update every Thursday from 5 p.m., is likely to change significantly to each updating.