What to expect normally for the American economy

In the short term. However, the increase in customs duties must generate surplus inflation and a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile,

The economic policy carried out in the United States will normally degrade the US economy in the short term. long-term:

• In the short term, the increase in customs duties (estimated by the University of Yale at 16 points after the agreement with the European Union) must generate a surplus of inflation (of the order of one point) and a slowdown in growth (with unreprecedly reflected inflation on wages);
• In the short term too, restrictions on immigration, the depreciation of the dollar and the expansionist budgetary policy carried out in full employment will also be inflationary;
• Finally, in the long term, the reduction of federal subsidies to research institutions and universities, attacks on research programs, will reduce the capacity for innovation what expect normally american economy and therefore the long -term growth of the American economy.

In total. you have to wait:

• an increase in inflation especially in the short term (the inflationary effects of customs duties are transient);
• a decline in growth, both in the short term and long -term;
• Any attractiveness of the American economy for the investments of non-residents.

To consult the complete analysis in French, below.