What security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire? A decrypt specialist

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What security guarantees ukraine event:

ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP

Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, Monday, August 18, in the White House.

War in Ukraine-As the diplomatic waltz around the resolution of the war in Ukraine is accelerating. Similarly, a question is essential at the center of the debates: what security guarantees to give to Ukraine in the event of a cease-fire with Russia? However, The subject was notably discussed this Wednesday. Moreover, August 20 at a meeting in Visio Conference of Chiefs of Staff of the 32 NATO countries.

All the challenge for Westerners is to assure Ukraine that the conflict will not resume if it accepts a cease-fire. For example, without what security guarantees ukraine event pointing Russia for negotiations for a lasting peace agreement, a few weeks before a possible meeting between the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

kyiv allies “All agree that Ukraine needs security guarantees. Consequently, But there are differences on the methods of implementing these guarantees ”recalls Ulrich Brounat. Furthermore, geopolitologist specializing in war in Ukraine, questioned by The HuffPost. Moreover, “It will be one of the hard points” Top players of the next few days, he says.

According to the specialist, there are “Three types of security guarantees” possible. Similarly, “The first of them – which is consensus – consists in providing equipment to the Ukrainian army so that. Consequently, it is able to defend itself”he begins by exposing.

A deployment of European soldiers on Ukrainian soil? – What security guarantees ukraine event

“The second warranty is the implementation of a” no fly zone what security guarantees ukraine event “. that is to say an air exclusion zone which would aim to prevent missiles and Russian planes from penetrating Ukrainian airspace ”, he continues. Tuesday. August 19, Donald Trump also said in an interview with Fox News that an American air support could be part of the security guarantees granted to Ukraine. However, according to Ulrich Bounat, this does not necessarily mean participation in the « no fly zone ». We can interpret this declaration as the intention to set up “Simple air surveillance. so as to identify threats in real time”he said.

The third and more thorny of the possible guarantees is the deployment of troops on Ukrainian soil. As such. the American president said on Tuesday that Europeans were “Ready to send troops on the ground” Ukrainian, while saying that the presence of American soldiers was dismissed. This idea is notably carried by France. the United what security guarantees ukraine event Kingdom, through the “Coalition of volunteers”a group of around thirty countries that are mainly European supporting Ukraine.

In such a case, we could see arriving in Ukraine “A contingent of a few thousand men”predicts Ulrich Bounat. “It would not be a presence on the front line but soldiers deployed very behind the front. in particular to do training or demining. Their primary role would not be to fight ”he tempers. Their presence would especially have “A major symbolic effect since if Russia again attacks Ukraine in the presence of European troops. this would return to a declaration of war”deciphers the geopolitologist. Some countries, such as Italy, are however opposed to this measure.

Towards an application of article 5 of NATO?

Beyond these measures. certain kyiv allies have also considered another track as security guarantee: the application of article 5 of NATO to Ukraine, without what security guarantees ukraine event integrating the country into the transatlantic organization. As of March, the Italian head of government Giorgia Meloni had pleaded for this option. More recently. the American emissary Steve Witkoff advanced this track after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska, affirming in a hasty way that the Russian president had not opposed it, before returning to his words.

This text provides that all “Attack on one is an attack on all”. thus allows “The use of armed force” as one of the possible assistance options in the event of the assault of an ally. NATO member countries would therefore undertake to intervene alongside the Ukrainian army if Russia leads a new offensive after. the conclusion of a cease-fire agreement. This strategy has the advantage of respecting the Russian demand for non-integration from Ukraine to NATO, which Donald Trump stored.

“This can have a what security guarantees ukraine event deterrent effect. but in the eyes of the Ukrainians such a commitment cannot replace a military presence” Effective immediately, says Ulrich Bounat. Moreover, “It is unlikely that the United States” agree to make such a promise, he adds.

For its part, Russia has already started to express reluctance as to the security guarantees provided to Ukraine. This Wednesday. the chief of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov warned that any discussion which would not take into account the position of Moscow would lead “Nowhere”. The day before, the Kremlin had claimed the right to be granted security guarantees.

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