It is already necessary to measure the total amount of these customs taxes. For the US Secretary of Commerce, these taxes will bring in $ 600 billion a year to the US government, for the Treasury Secretary, the estimate is lower at $ 300 billion. Customs duties should therefore, even if this divergence of estimate is quite surprising in the same administration, represent the equivalent of 1% to 2% of American GDP over a year. A significant weight.
It remains to be determined now who will pay these customs duties, and it is in particular Goldman Sachs who stuck to the exercise. The American bank (recently criticized by Donald Trump) estimates that until June, the cost of customs duties was borne at 64%… by American companies. And at 22% by American consumers, the remaining 14% being supported by foreign companies.
But according to Goldman Sachs, the distribution has changed after June and should be as follows by October: it is now American consumers who will bear 67% of customs duties, and only 8% for American companies who will therefore have decided to pass most of the costs to consumers. European export companies will support 25% of customs duties.
So ultimately, American companies and consumers will absorb 75% of the impact of customs taxes. If we take the middle of the customs duties estimation range cited above, this represents $ 450 billion, or nearly $ 340 billion in additional taxes and consumers, over a year.
In a context where the underlying inflation went up to 3.1% in the United States in July, the big question will be how American consumers will “cash” the impact of these customs duties in the coming months …