Officially, XI did not travel due to an agenda problem. Some also argue that he had already met the Brazilian president recently twice: during the G20 summit in Rio in November 2024 (participation followed by a state visit to Brasilia) and last May thanks to a trip to Beijing by Lula Da Silva. He would also not have seen Vladimir Putin who, under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, more prudent to stay in Russia. As for the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, Xi Jinping can find him in four months, at the next G20 summit in Johannesburg, on November 22 and 23.
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Xi Jinping could have certainly converse with the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, but he is not the leader of the BRICS with whom he has the most affinities. He even says he would have taken up the state dinner project to which Lula had invited Modi.
A lizarded front against Washington
Rio’s meeting was certainly organized to a crucial word to constitute a united front in the trade war that Donald Trump triggered. XI could, however, fear that the BRICS display their weakness more than their strength by showing divisions. If all countries affect wanting to tighten ranks to withstand American pressures, everyone also tries to negotiate more or less advantageous separate agreements and, to achieve it, strives not to excessively undoubtedly undo Washington. The Chinese president could therefore fear wasting and his time and the face by going to Rio.
If the explanation seems consistent, it is not enough to discourage the search for underlying motivations. These speculations are fed by recent events in Beijing, whose dismissal last month of two senior officials of the People’s Liberation Army (APL): Admiral Miao Hua and vice-admiral Li Hanjun. The first sat in the all-powerful central military commission, where he directed the Department of “Political Labor” in charge of ideology and loyalty to the regime within the armed forces. The second was the chief of Chinese navy. Both are accused of “serious violations of the discipline” within the Communist Party, a coded expression which typically refers to acts of corruption.
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The feeling of great political tension
By accessing the supreme power in 2012, Xi Jinping had made the fight against corruption its priority. The country has since lived at the rate of the evictions and convictions which have not spared the top of the hierarchy. Two successive ministers of defense, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, as well as a Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, were dismissed, as were several high ranks of the APL. These purges provided the feeling that the Chinese regime lived exceptionally tense hours.
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From there to imagine that Xi Jinping would be threatened, a reason for which he would have preferred not to move away from Beijing, there is only one step – which it would however be risky to take even if it cannot be completely excluded from factions. If man may take advantage of the fight against corruption to eliminate rivals, it must be noted that he keeps the advantage in this exercise. And he knows himself, what is more, strong enough to attack the army, which has always constituted a state in the state and has long been untouchable.