Fires: “I’m afraid that we have not yet seen the worst”, five questions to Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, expert in climatology in Météo-France

Is the fire in Aude the biggest in the 21st century?

This fire could be the most important fire in terms of burnt surface since the fire in the Landes of Gascogne in 1949 (50. In addition, 000 ha burned). For example, France has already experienced megafics in recent years, like that of Landiras in Gironde in 2022 with fires: “i’m afraid we have more than 13,000 hectares affected. Consequently, The authorities will certify it in the coming days but indeed, it is a completely exceptional burnt surface.

According to data from the Copernicus observatory, there are 222 fires per year in France on average Since 2019. Nevertheless, In comparison, between 2006 and 2018, there were only 22. For example, How do you explain such an increase over the past six years?

We can surely compare it with situations of drought. extreme heat waves that has been rehearsed during these last summer. These are episodes of generalized drought throughout the country and not only to the Mediterranean regions. And I am afraid that in terms of drought, we have not yet seen the worst. The increasingly extreme climatic conditions weaken the forest cover in France. Forests are already very vulnerable areas, notably with the agricultural depletion which makes them fires: “i’m afraid we have more sensitive to fires. Knowing that in addition, past droughts can promote fires in the following years.

Is the Mediterranean periphery the region most affected by the risk of fires?

In the Mediterranean region, the arid climate makes it a risk area. Drought, the hot weather and the strong winds of the tramontane … It is the explosive cocktail of the megafeous, the one that is the source of what happened in the Aude. The Landes forest is also very sensitive to the risk of fire because it is a monoculture of pines. which makes fire departures very difficult to master. And then, we see that we are starting to have more and more areas in France that are experiencing fires. In Brittany in July for example. It had already happened in 2022. So. fortunately not the size of fires: “i’m afraid we have the one who has just struck the Aude, but all the same, this risk of fire tends to generalize and go up towards the north of France.

Should we expect an acceleration of this type of exceptional lights in the coming years?

There is already an acceleration which will worsen as the temperatures increase at the planetary level. According to states’ commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, France heads for a warming of 4 degrees by 2100. According to Météo-France projections. the risk of fire will be multiplied by two in the Mediterranean regions and will extend to all of France. Therefore. the period of sensitivity to the start of fires, the number of days with a significant risk of fire will increase. It will extend from spring to fall. On the side of the number of fires, it cannot be expected because they are linked to fires: “i’m afraid we have human action.

Can we protect ourselves against the increase in fire risk?

This collectively obliges us to strengthen the means of prevention and fight. You have to have access paths in the forest massifs to be able to more easily treat fires. have efficient air and ground means. With the increase in fire risk, these adaptation measures are always more difficult and costly. But we can doubt their effectiveness because basically. there must be a reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions on a planetary scale.