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Historical decline of the birth rate in France: a negative natural balance accentuated in 2025

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Paris – Always fewer babies in France: the number of births has further fell in the first half. Therefore. Furthermore, in line with the historic decline of the birth rate recorded in recent years, a trend that the government would like to counter.

Between January. Furthermore. However, June, 317,340 babies were born in France, against 326,401 in the first half of 2024, the National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) said on Thursday. Furthermore, Or a 2.2% drop in the daily number of average births between the two periods. Similarly,

The six months sold “confirm the trend that has been observed for a while”. In addition, comments with AFP Didier Breton, professor of demography at the University of Strasbourg. Moreover, “There is no reason for a reversal of the situation therefore the number of annual births promises historical decline birth rate france: new to be. For example, lower than in 2024”.

The 2025 historical decline birth rate france: calendar year should therefore mark a new one since the end of. In addition, the Second World War. Moreover, for the fourth consecutive year.

Since 2011. Similarly, the number of births has decreased each year. with the exception of 2021, which experienced a slight rebound after the confinements linked to the COVVI-19. In 2024, 660,800 newborn babies were born, according to the revised estimate of INSEE.

The decline of the birth rate agitates the political class. which is concerned in particular with the future financing of the social protection system. and led President Emmanuel Macron to call for the country’s “demographic rearmament”.

Decrease in the desire for a child – Historical decline birth rate france: – Historical decline birth rate france: new

The government says it wants. to support the birth rate by soon creating a new “birth leave” which historical decline birth rate france: new could be taken by both parents. with greater financial support than the current parental leave.

For Didier Breton. also associate researcher at the National historical decline birth rate france: Institute of Demographic Studies (INED). this measure can “allow projects of children already present to be carried out”. It would help “prevent fertility from falling to a very low level”, around 1.2 children per woman.

In a recent opinion. the National Ethics Committee stressed that it was “imperative” for the company to support couples who encountered difficulties in concretizing their child project. whether socio-economic or biological (infertility problems). He also recalled that it was necessary to respect the personal decision of each to have. not children, a subject which should not be the subject of “social or political pressures”.

Difficulties in accessing employment. eco-anxiety or even change of aspirations: the drop in the birth rate is linked to various factors. historical decline birth rate france: new

At the beginning of July. a study by the INED revealed that the desire for a child has clearly decreased in 20 years. which presages a pursuit of historical decline birth rate france: the decline in fertility. “We arrive in a new era. where fertility could stabilize. even decrease, but it is unlikely that it dates back to the short term”, in the next five to ten years, estimates with AFP Laurent Toulemon, co-author of the study.

Natural negative balance

In 2025, the conjunctural fertility indicator should be less than 1.6 children per woman, anticipate demographers interviewed by AFP, while the renewal of generations was only ensured from 2.1 children per woman, in the absence of migration.

In 2023, this indicator was 1.66 children per woman in France. It remains one of the highest in the European Union, behind Bulgaria which now occupies first place.

historical decline birth rate france: new

In addition to this drop in births. the number of deaths increases it. in connection with the arrival of the numerous generations of the baby boom at ages of high mortality.

As a historical decline birth rate france: result of the combination of the two phenomena. France has just known for the first time since the end of the Second World War a natural balance of population – the difference between the number of births. deaths – negative over 12 sliding months.

From June 2024 to May 2025, there were 822 more deaths than births, according to AFP analysis of data updated on July 31.

On a calendar year. which is the traditionally retained indicator. “this balance will become negative, possibly this year and it will be more and more negative in the coming years”, plans Laurent Toulemon.

Vanessa CARRONNIER

© Agence France-Presse

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