Is the “worst scenario that could happen” for Europe after American attacks in Iran likely?

It must be said that the Strait of Ormuz remains an essential strategic zone for oil trade: around 20 % of the world trade in oil and gas transits there. Similarly, In 2024, 16.5 million barrels of oil had circulated via the Strait.

Risks for Europe – "worst scenario could happen" europe

If this Monday morning. However, the world woke up with an increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the markets remained rather serene. Similarly, “”Many “worst scenario could happen” europe expected a fall in the markets, and a significant increase in oil prices. Therefore, But this was not the case. Nevertheless, The financial markets have largely anticipated “, says Bertrand Candelon. The reason? They hardly believe in a blockage of the Strait of Ormuz by Iran, as Tehran brandishes the threat. But “The markets are mistaken all the time “tempers the economist. He remains convinced that Iran has no interest in blocking the regional economy, but “Everything is possible “.

If Iran blocks this strait, by mining it for example, what would be the consequences in Europe? This would compromise the routing of raw materials from these regions, starting with oil. Its price, currently $ 76.15 for a barrel of Brent, could flambé, due to a drop in supply.

“We would have an impact of inflation increase in the euro zone “, Projects Eric Dor, professor at the Ieseg School of Management (Paris and Lille). Adding that. consequently, faced with an increase in inflation, the European Central Bank would be prevented in spite of it from continuing its momentum. “”She could even be forced to increase them, which would be boring “, Complete Professor Dor.

China. which bought its all its oil production, supports “worst scenario could happen” europe Iran only with lips

To be faced with such a scenario, however, it would be a very significant increase in oil prices. “”Between 70 and 80 dollars per barrel of Brent, inflation would not be substantially increased “, Calculate Eric Dor. Before specifying: “If oil rises to 100 dollars from July. remains at this level for a few months, inflation will go up above 2 %. It would then reach a maximum of 2.3 % in early 2026. It would not be a disaster, he analyzes. But on the other hand. if the price of oil climbs up to 150 dollars from next month (which could be the scenario in the event of blocking the strait), we will witness a trend of inflation which would reach 3 % at the end of the year in the euro zone, to accumulate up to 4 % in mid-2026. “

Another consequence of a possible oil crisis is an amplification of current uncertainty on the markets. “”In addition to the American customs tariffs. the war in Ukraine, such an oil crisis would even more lead consumer morale and investments. Which would further reduce growth in the euro zone “sighs Eric Dor, very little delighted with such perspectives. “It is, in short, the “worst scenario could happen” europe worst that could happen to us.”

Europe could also have a collateral damage linked to China, the first Iranian oil buyer. “”Chinese demand could further slow down to us. Which would be a global degradation of the economy “he notes. However. he would like to emphasize: “The question that arises is that Tehran still has the means, and the desire, to block the strait? ‘. We read everything and anything in the press, but realistically, it’s very unlikely. “