In full session, Novo Nordisk wins by more than 20% after a new downward revision of its prospects for the year, the second in a few months. Considered a breathtaking fortress until June 2024 for its duopoly with Eli Lilly in the field of anti-obesity treatments, the Danish group continues the disappointments. The return to earth is brutal: two-thirds of the value have gone up in smoke since the peak of the title.
The Danish laboratory is now counting on sales growth limited to 8-14 % (against 13-21 % previously) and an increase in operational profit of 10-16 % (against 16-24 % before). The shock underlines how the domination of Novo Nordisk in the treatments against obesity and diabetes is now threatened by competition, in particular that of Eli Lilly.
On the clinical and commercial field, the American has taken ahead. Its Zepbound (obesity) and Mounjaro (diabetes and obesity) drugs allow patients to obtain more significant weight loss and better glycemic control than Wegovy and Ozempic, Novo Nordisk blockbusters. For the past few months already, Eli Lilly’s treatments have already exceeded those of the Danish in weekly prescriptions in the United States. It is not nothing in a market where patient’s loyalty is essential. The fears are mounted with a notch still thanks to the good results obtained by Orforglipron, a new promising oral anti-obsity treatment which could supplant weekly injections which are currently the standard for patients.
If Eli Lilly’s good performances have thrown cold on Novo Nordisk, for a year, the stall observed actually is due to a bundle of larger and more complex causes.
- Investors fear a prolonged slowdown in the United States, where Novo achieves 75 % of its turnover. Massive exposure to the EUR / USD rate could cut the margins if the euro is strengthening.
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Illegal competition is intensifying. The black American market is already full of counterfeit or illegal versions of treatments which are often sold at broken prices on the Internet. This value leak, difficult to stop, weakens the commercial position of Novo Nordisk.
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Political risk is not trivial. Donald Trump wanted to increase the pressure on the American health system on several occasions, notably with budget cuts and eligibility changes to public health insurance programs (Medicare and Medicaid). This would weaken access to these expensive treatments for part of patients and low -income patients.
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The end of the protection of patents on the semaglutide, the active ingredient in the stars Ozempic and Wegovy, from 2026 in several countries, paved the way for the arrival of generics. Several specialized companies (Hikma and Sandoz, among others, are already fighting to get the best part of the cake). These versions could be offered at 50 to 80 % lower prices, or even more according to certain analysts.
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Finally, the eviction of the CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen last May (but still in office until next month), orchestrated by the Novo Nordisk Foundation, The main shareholder, had brought a little additional tension even if some analysts had estimated that this would allow the company to start on better bases.
In 2024, the hopes aroused by Wegovy sales had propelled Novo Nordisk to the rank of the best valued business in Europe. A year later, the title was divided by three. The hope of quasi-monopoly now seems cracked. The Danish laboratory finds itself forced to defend its positions, quite the opposite of what it sought to do only a year ago.
Novo Nordisk wins by 22% at the time when these lines are written. The title made a peak at -28% at a time after lowering the objectives. The Danish index, OMX Copenhagen, of which Novo Nordisk is the second weighting after DSV, a fall of 11%.
