Donald Trump’s statistics battle continues. After criticizing the latest forecasts on the job market at the Employment Statistics Office (BLS), the American president attacked a private company on Tuesday: Goldman Sachs.
The boss of the American bank, David Solomon, paid the price of Donald Trump’s harsh remarks on his Truth Social network. “I think David should be a new economist or, perhaps, focus only on his DJ career and not to bind to direct a great financial institution”, thus wrote the Republican.
A publication that does not pass
Goldman Sachs’ latest forecasts on the consequences of customs duties did not have to be to the taste of the American president. In a note published in early August, the American bank estimates that American consumers absorbed 22 % of the cost of customs duties from Donald Trump until June. But that this share should rise to 67 % by October. This would confirm the analyzes on an upcoming rebound in inflation in the United States because of customs surcharge.
The commercial offensive led by the Trump administration has brought back American customs duties to an never seen level since the 1930s. The challenge is now to determine when and how much the surcharge will reach businesses and consumers in the United States. So far, customs duties have been felt little in the inflation figures that have remained stable in July, according to the consumer price index (ICC) published on Tuesday. Which serves the president’s rhetoric: “It has been proven that, even at this advanced stage, customs duties have not caused inflation, nor any other problem for the United States, if not the massive influx of cash in treasury chests”, he wrote in his post. The underlying inflation (excluding energy and food), however, recorded a rebound of more than 3 % over a year.
Still according to Donald Trump’s explanations, it is foreign exporters who will pay customs taxes: “It has been shown that, in most cases, it is not even consumers who pay these customs duties, but mainly companies and governments, many of which are foreign.” While some foreign companies in competitive sectors may indeed lower their prices to keep their market share in the United States, in fact, it is the American importers who directly regulate the surcharge. American companies can then cut on their margin, so as not to pass the cost on American households, or increase their prices.
According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, companies have absorbed 64 % of surcharge so far. Some American companies are already paying the cost of customs surcharge. This is the case of Apple, which records a cost of $ 1.1 billion for the current quarter. Nike figures a loss of almost 1 billion for 2026. However, this share should then fall to less than 10 %. On the side of foreign exporters, they absorbed 14 % of the cost until June and should then absorb 25 %.
Revision of statistics
Donald Trump no longer hesitates to attack institutions and economists when the figures serve his policy. In early August, it was the American employment statistics (BLS) (BLS) office that had undergone the billionaire wrath. He reproached the institution in particular for having “Trucked” Figures on the labor market which displayed a significant downward revision of employment creations. It didn’t take more for Donald Trump to send the chief economist Erika Mcentarfer. The latter will be replaced by EJ Antoni, the current leader of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative reflection group, which has repeatedly supported the policy of the American president.
An episode that has worried the economic world, while BLS is renowned for its independence. His publications are closely followed by the financial markets around the world, which need objective data. The Nabe, an American association of economists, had then denounced “Unprecedented attacks by the president against independence and integrity of the federal statistical system”.
Again last week, the American president presented alternative statistics to the White House to prove that employment figures have been handled for political purposes. He was accompanied by Stephen Moore, a conservative economist also working at the Heritage Foundation. According to his calculations, “During the last two years of the government of Joe Biden, the Employment Statistics Office (BLS) had overestimated employment creations of 1.5 million units.” Always according to the economist, “During the first five months of Trump’s mandate, the average household income, adjusted in inflation, increased by $ 1,174.” “These are incredible data. We are doing very well ”, commented the American president. The war of numbers is declared.
