Gold is of particular importance for Donald Trump.Image: Imago / Keystone, montage watson
Should Switzerland remain their arms crossed while Donald Trump imposes 39% customs duties? No, says an economist well aware of the National Bank behind the scenes. At the heart of its three -step plan: gold.
18.08.2025, 11:5918.08.2025, 11:59
Othmar von Matt / CH Media
For Adriel Jost, the strategy to adopt in the face of Donald Trump’s punitive rates against Switzerland is two simple questions.
- Do we still have confidence in American state loans, when we see the self-destructive economic and budgetary policy of Donald Trump?
Answer: “No”. - Do we trust gold?
Answer: “Yes”.
For the economist, the conclusion is essential:
“The BNS should sell the state bonds of heavily indebted countries like the United States, and buy gold”
And Adriel Jost knows what he is talking about: he was adviser to the vice-president of the BNS general management and chief economist of the Wellershoff & Partners.
Today, he is a consultant at the Swiss Economic Policy Institute of the University of Lucerne, lecturer at the University of Saint-Gall and president of the Think Tank Liberethica.
Here is his three -step plan 👇
Prohibit gold export to the United States
First step according to Adriel Jost: prohibit the export of Swiss gold to the United States. This would be due to almost the same as a 39% tax on exported gold, as the Swatch boss, Nick Hayek, claims in an article of Blick.
“A 39% customs duty is in fact equivalent to an export ban to the United States.”
However, Donald Trump does not impose a tax on Swiss gold. Nick Hayek, an analysis supported by Adriel Jost, says:
“It’s his Achilles heel!”
Sell US Treasury Billings
Second step: cede the state obligations of very indebted countries, priority those of the United States. Currently, Switzerland has around $ 300 billion in long -term American loans. Almost two thirds, about 200 billion, belong to the BNS, according to Jost. At the end of June 2024, the US Treasury Department listed $ 1194 billion in American titles held by Swiss institutions and companies.
Switzerland thus occupies eighth rank in the world, just behind China. The United Kingdom is first with $ 2946 billion in titles.
Buy gold in the United States
Third step: investing the product of these sales in gold. “And buy it if possible in the United States,” said Adriel Jost. Then have one kilo bars transform into Swiss refineries into 400 ounce bars, exportable to the United Kingdom. On the American market, on the other hand, it is the small ingots of one kilo that are requested.
Swiss refineries play a key role in these flows between the United States and the United Kingdom: they adapt formats to market standards. Proof of their importance: British Foreign Minister David Lammy went to the Ticino refinery last Thursday Argor-Heraeus.
The expected effects
With these three measures, Switzerland would obtain at least one thing, according to Adriel Jost:
“The commercial surplus with the United States would abruptly decrease”
But it provides for other consequences: Washington would suffer “quickly negative effects”, as shown by the turmoil aroused by the announcement of a 39% tax on Swiss gold. The economist is convinced of this:
“This could encourage President Trump to be more conciliatory in negotiations”
In the photo, you can see one of its golden glass in gold during a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron.Image: EPA / BONNIE CASH / POOL
Under Joe Biden already, Adriel Jost criticized the BNS for favoring the state obligations of countries over -indebted to the detriment of gold. In September 2024, he wrote in the economic magazine Balance sheet:
“The real reason why the National Bank does not buy gold is probably that it does not want to offend its foreign counterparts. Buying gold would be a barely veiled signal of distrust of their currency. ”
A question of confidence
The evangelical national councilor Nik Gugger, specialist in free trade, shares this analysis: the question of confidence is central. Switzerland should send a strong signal to Donald Trump by questioning American financial titles. He recommends that the BNS will review its investment strategy in an ostensible way, or that it gradually transfers its assets to gold.
A subtle approach, but with a strong symbolic scope: “He who is silent when the markets are unbalanced should not be surprised to be taken away by the storm”, declaims Nik Gugger. “Sending a signal now is preserving your capacity for action.” And add:
“Our obligations are not only money, they also reflect to whom we grant our confidence”
A condition for yellow metal
Gold seems to play a special role for Donald Trump. The proof: he wants to have a white and gold ballroom in the White House. “Gold is obviously more value than other goods exported by Switzerland,” observes Adriel Jost:
“Trump seems to have a very personal relationship with this metal”
Above all, Donald Trump reacts very quickly to everything related to gold. And the American -on markets on yellow metal would undoubtedly undergo turbulence if Switzerland prohibited its export, according to the economist.
“The American president would then be forced to react”
Adapted from German by Tanja Maeder
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