Coupons short from a made idea. No, despite the crisis of purchasing power, the passion for making your own bread during the COVID or the massive boom in telework, the French do not eat less and less outside. Between 2019 and 2024, the number of meals outside the home increased by + 5.1 %, according to the Gira specialist firm.
A significant increase, but insufficient in the face of another rise in power. That of the number of restaurants, from 361,000 establishments to 407,000 in five years. Or an express growth of + 12.7 %. In 2024, there was an establishment in France for 170 inhabitants, against one for 210 ten years earlier. “France is probably a saturated market, there are too many offers compared to demand,” explains Bernard Boutboul, president of Gira.
While the general turnover continues to increase, that per unit decreases. On average, a drop from 1 % to 2 % per establishment in 2024, according to analyzes of the Food Service Vision firm, with large variations from one establishment to another. The same goes for attendance this summer 2025, falling from – 15 % to – 20 %, according to the Union of Hotel Trades and Industries (UMIH), with there again deep inequalities between two tables. “Many establishments, notably renowned or qualitative, are doing very well,” recalls Bernard Boutboul.
“We cannot be so numerous”
7,200 restaurants closed in 2023, up 44 % compared to 2022. And many “newcomers” leave as quickly as they have arrived. By scrolling on Instagram, you have already come across an “new concept” of absurd restaurant – Thuna bar, a specialist establishment in Orgeat syrup and other “we eat the dessert with blindfolded” – asking you how it could work? Answer: It doesn’t work. Since 2019, a third of the restaurants that open do not pass the two -year milestone, recalls Bernard Boutboul. “There is a point of sale multiplication, especially in high season. Gourmet market, Guinguette, wine tourism, ephemeral restaurants … We cannot be so numerous in the catering sector, “pleads Franck Chaumès, president of UMIH Restauration.
Paris thus has a restaurant by 82 inhabitants, Bordeaux every 103, Nice 105, Toulouse 145. In other words, in the Girondin capital, an establishment of 50 covers would need each inhabitant in his neighborhood to eat once a day to display complete.
Cities with absurd restaurant
“There is a delusional density in certain places, this cannot work,” attests Nicolas Nouchi, director of studies Strateg’eat. “On certain streets in Paris, you can come across six or seven restaurants and five coffee shops in 100 meters. “Especially since between urban redevelopment, increase in the price of gasoline and decrease in travel since the COVID period,” customers are less mobile and elastic than in the past. A restaurant will have to count much more on the inhabitants of its neighborhood ”.
An analysis shared by Pascale Hébel, associate director of Cways: “Trends evolve, and the customer is less ready to move for a long time to eat. Lunch breaks are also reduced, even in teleworking, which pushes to consumption as close as possible. ”
Despite this dark inventory, restaurants continue to push like mushrooms in France. “Opening a restaurant is still a dream for many,” says Franck Chaumès, who describes the classic case of the former architect or seller “who opens a restaurant by retaining an old store in a street in Bordeaux. “Problem, he closes quickly,” and once it is transformed into a restaurant, it never becomes a shop again “.
Lucile, a resident of the city, testifies: “In a few years, our city center has turned into a beast of restaurants, which are constantly replaced by others. There is no more shopping, just to eat salads’ ‘concept’ at 24 euros and 7 -ball matchas. »»
On average, the addition has increased by 25 % in the restaurant in three years, much more than the combination of inflation (17 %). 89 % of French people say they look at the price at the restaurant, 5 more points than in 2023, according to Food Service Vision. And many find the abrasive prices (let’s stop trivializing the desserts at 10 euros, pity).
Ephemeral trends and abandoned customers
Because food trends are evolving more and more quickly, already announcing the crashes to come. “Food modes last one or two years, and restaurants wishing to capitalize on it by thinking of finding the right plan quickly see their model outdated,” worries Nicolas Nouchi.
Except that in catering, the market has all the sorrows to regulate itself. Stéphane Manigold, owner of eight restaurants in Paris (Maison Rostang, granite, contrast, the Bistrot Flaubert …), deplores “a crisis of confidence, due to a lack of transparency, which makes everyone advertising to everyone. By dint of deceiving customers with poor quality, they are wary of everyone. The consumer is too dismissed from the debates ”.
Towards regulation?
Long taboo, especially for fear of restraining the creativity of the environment or missing next to the next By Vinci From cooking, the question of imposing regulation is increasingly returning to the table. Restoration remains one of the few handcrafted sectors to require any diploma to get started, recalls Bernard Boutboul. Franck Chaumès, for his part, pleads for a “numerus clausus”, especially in the cities taken by assault like Bordeaux.
Another solution invoked, “an entrepreneurial permit to pass, like the driving license, necessary for anyone who has not done management studies and who would like to set up a restaurant. “And indeed, beyond dream and cooking” that we can learn by watching TV shows “,” catering requires more and more skills. Management, marketing, presence on social networks… ”
For Stéphane Manigold, regulation involves some necessary laws on the origin of the products. “It’s simple: if it’s homemade, we say, if it is not, we say where it comes from and the origins of profit. Those who do not want to know what you eat really serve you shit. We have to address consumers, it is he who wants to know who made the veal blanquette. »»
As early as 2012, a European Union directive, not applied in France, wanted to force transparency on the use of frozen frozen. “It has been applied in Italy since 2016, and it is the number 1 country in gastronomic power and in the reputation of these restaurants,” despairs Stéphane Manigold. “In France, a duck confit from eastern countries is named duck in the Southwest, it is a shame and an insult to the consumer. Instead of being a “oin” profession on BFM which requires state aid, let’s sweep outside our door “. Conclusion for the head of eight establishments: “There are not too many restaurants, there are too many pseudo-restaurants, which cook dishes in the microwave, add three parsley sheets and sell 30 euros. Let’s remove them, and our sector will be disatuated ”.
