If perception does not systematically argue reality, several data could invite to prudence that the surveys seem to recommend.
At 4.2%, the American unemployment rate remains historically low. An observation coherent with the dynamics of job creations: in May, nearly 140,000 jobs were still created in the non-agricultural private sector. This is enough not to see unemployment starting upwards. However, households become more concerned with the state of the labor market.
Our analysis
On several occasions, household anxiety may have augur with an effective rise in the unemployment rate. Investigations can be a slightly advanced character, unlike employment statistics that are generally observed in reverse.
If perception does not systematically argue reality, several data could invite to prudence that the surveys seem to recommend. For two months, the figures for previous job creations have been revised downwards by the work statistics office. The average for four weeks of unemployment benefits requests above 245,000 weekly files. Finally, the “continuous requests”, which measure the mass of job seekers who accumulate over time, have increased sharply since the beginning of May to get closer to the 2 million threshold.
