Since the beginning of the year, the American tariff policy has deeply disrupted world trade, significantly distorting the growth table in the first half of 2025.
After several months marked by American trade tensions that have fueled the volatility of global trade and slowed down economic growth, the recent climbing of the conflict between Israel and Iran-with the direct involvement of the United States-has once again shaken the financial markets and undermined investors. In this tense geopolitical context and faced with the persistent repercussions of the trade conflict, we anticipate a slowdown in activity in the United States, a drop in importing demand and inflationary pressures in the coming months. We therefore recommend a global “neutral” positioning in shares, in order to carefully manage risks in a low growth environment.
Macroeconomics
Since the beginning of the year, the American tariff policy has deeply disrupted world trade, significantly distorting the growth table in the first half of 2025. If the American economy seemed resistant until recently – carried by early investments and solid consumption – this momentum is now running out of steam. By the end of the year, we anticipate a drop in importation demand, a weakening of domestic activity and inflationary risks linked to customs prices – as many deferred consequences of the commercial conflict.
Investment strategy
While the macroeconomic climate of the first half has been dominated by trade tensions, we believe that the second half will be characterized by a relative lull – although always on a high level – and a transition to a low growth environment, with divergent inflation dynamics. In this configuration, a “neutral” actions positioning, aligned with strategic weighting, seems appropriate to us: the risks now appear more balanced, although uncertainty remains high.
Actions Strategy
Global equity markets have increased sharply in recent weeks, drawn in particular by large capitalizations linked to artificial intelligence. The relative appeasement of trade tensions and the stabilization of profits have also played a favorable role. However, geopolitical uncertainties-especially around American trade agreements and tensions in the Middle East-continue to weigh. The American market is particularly vulnerable: tense valuations do not compensate for the high risks, thus limiting the potential of increase, except clear improvement of fundamentals (rate lower than expectations, stronger benefits). We therefore maintain our “under-pondeed” position on American actions.
Conversely, we note our exposure to emerging markets at “overvolté”, supported by an improvement dynamic, an attractive sectoral composition (in particular finance and technologies), and a lower exposure to commercial risks.
Finally, we lower the industrial sector to “neutral” after its strong recent outperformance, in order to secure the gains made – this sector being both cyclical and expensive.
Bond strategy
American sovereign bonds retain a central role in the international financial system, but their status of refuge value is increasingly questioned. The rise in public debt, the increase in charges of interest and political instability weaken the confidence of investors. The Moody’s agency has already lowered the credit note from the United States, and international investors are more cautious.
We thus anticipate upward pressures on the yields of long obligations, attenuated in part by a postponement to domestic demand. Despite their persistent importance, the US Treasuries have visibly lost their brilliance as a ultimate refuge.
Currency and gold strategy
In the short term, the US dollar still benefits from the interest rate differential, which should allow a certain stability around current levels. But in the medium term, the qualitative degradation of institutions – particularly in matters of governance – constitutes a structural opposite wind. These weaknesses should gradually bring the dollar closer to its fair theoretical value, estimated at 1.20 for the EUR/USD. We plan a exchange rate of 1.17 to 12 months, combining short -term support and medium -term vulnerabilities.
In this context, gold retains its diversification role, supported by geopolitical tensions and inflationary risks linked to American tariff policy. We believe that the cash price in cash will reach 3,500 dollars in six months and 3,600 dollars in a year. We therefore pass the precious metal to an “attractive” notation.
