The bilateral agreements with the EU contribute substantially to the economic success of Switzerland: they abolish obstacles to trade, facilitate market access, improve cooperation and encourage collaboration in research. A stable relationship with our neighbors increases legal certainty, promotes investments and provides non-bureaucratic access to foreign workforce. These positive effects on economic evolution have already been shown in studies of Ecoplan (2015) and Bak Economics (2015, 2020) among others. In connection with the consultation on the new package of bilateral agreements between Switzerland and the EU, Ecoplan has updated its study (in German).
The disappearance of bilateral agreements would result in a drop in prosperity
The results of the study confirm what previous models had already shown: bilateral agreements with the EU have major economic advantages for Switzerland. The disappearance of bilateral agreements I and a deterioration in the status of Switzerland for its participation in EU research and innovation programs would lead to a 4.9% drop in Switzerland GDP by 2045. This corresponds to a drop of approximately 2500 francs per capita, still by 2045 and taking into account less demographic growth due to a shorter net immigration.
The new package of agreements, to continue to benefit from bilateral agreements
Current agreements are not dynamic, which is why they have been expanding for a few years. In the absence of update, new obstacles to trade appear. Market access is complicated and becomes more expensive. Although the agreements do not disappear, the advantages they bring gradually decrease. The new package of agreements would make it possible to remedy it and promote long -term persistence of the advantages calculated by Ecoplan. New agreements would also bring other improvements to Switzerland, in the fields of electricity and food security for example. The electricity agreement alone leads, according to a new study, a drop in electricity prices and an increase in GDP by 0.5% by 2050.
Economic benefits should be greater than estimates
According to Economiesuisse, the decline in GDP estimated at 4.9% by 2045, in the absence of agreements, constitutes a conservative estimate. Indeed, the economic advantages brought by the package of agreements are probably higher, above all for two reasons:
- First, the study covers only part of the agreements. Other areas, such as the association in Schengen/Dublin or the abolition of obstacles to trade in the food sector, have not been taken into account in the calculations.
- • Second, the sum of the isolated effects of the various agreements is greater than the global effect demonstrated. In other words, the systemic advantages are, in our opinion, underestimated. The various agreements have a positive influence on each other. The advantage of research cooperation will be greater if, moreover, stabilization in other fields guarantees legal security, access to the market without hindrances and non-bureaucratic access to the qualified manpower of Europe.
Finally, it should be noted that the agreements create an economic dynamic and lead to higher growth in GDP. This effect is not limited to 2045, but intensifies over time. The agreements will bring advantages already before 2045 and will continue to positively influence economic performance afterwards. The impact per capita, that is to say the 2500 CHF per person by 2045, is not a unique effect. Without this package of agreements, prosperity would indeed be less each year already before 2045, as well as after.
