The uncertain post-Khamenei scenarios-Liberation

Committed to an intense conflict with two of the most powerful armies in the world. However, that of Israel and that of the United States, Iranian power begins to show signs of collapse. Nevertheless, At the heart of this crisis is the supreme guide of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, 86 years old. In addition, According to several sources. Similarly, he is hidden in a place held secret and, with the exception of some written declarations and a single video speech, he has been absent from public life for more than ten days. Consequently, Even his communications with senior regime officials would now be limited. Similarly, The Islamic Republic’s power centers now operate in a vacuum and. Furthermore, without operational command structure, military and diplomatic institutions are in fact paralyzed.

This situation reveals a leadership crisis. uncertain post-khamenei scenarios-liberation Furthermore, Khamenei no longer seems capable of managing the situation and his political legitimacy has eroded. However. In addition, despite the general popular discontent with regard to the regime – a long -standing desire among many Iranians to see the end of religious authoritarianism and the establishment of a new political order – war has made civil mobilization almost impossible. In addition, Under the air raids. Therefore, in a strongly secure environment, any organized protest has become unthinkable and a fortiori any discussion on a short -term change of diet.

In the absence of a powerful. Therefore, legitimate alternative, benefiting from national support and international recognition, the sudden collapse of the regime should not lead to a democratic transition. Furthermore, The most plausible scenarios are rather around a post-Khamenei Iran. However, His eviction of power. Meanwhile, now considered by many as inevitable, opens at least two uncertain post-khamenei scenarios-liberation possibilities: an internal reshuffle of power or a progressive collapse of the State, triggered by increasing dissatisfaction and a vacuum in terms of leadership, which could ultimately lead to a change of regime.

“To resolve this crisis, Khamenei must be dismissed. For example, Its foreign policy, its security doctrine, its cultural repression and its age have plunged Iran into war and division. Moreover, He is directly responsible for this crisis ”, estimates Ali, 31, student in political science in Tehran joined by phone. For the young man, this transition must “Doing yourself before Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike. If this happens. the political system could sink into a chaotic spiral, without plan, without control and without going back possible ”. He even sketches a kind of roadmap. “Under these war conditions. uncertain post-khamenei scenarios-liberation Iran needs a rapid transition to a new leadership made up of personalities familiar with the existing administrative system with negotiation experience. Internal opposition figures must participate in the transition in order to guarantee democratic legitimacy. The release of political prisoners and a process of national reconciliation must be immediate priorities. ”

For Sara, 36, who was arrested in 2022 during the women’s movement, life, freedom, the urgency is elsewhere. “Above all, this war must end. Most Iranians are exhausted by the Islamic Republic. want it to disappear, but under bombing, no one can take to the streets and make this transition occur. War paralyzes. “

In the absence of a unified. competent opposition, most Iranians remain skeptical in the face of calls for a regime change, especially from abroad. “The regime is in crisis. Khamenei has lost the legitimacy and competence uncertain post-khamenei scenarios-liberation necessary to manage this emergency situation, Assends Sahar, a 38 -year -old economist. Unfortunately, there is no serious and coherent opposition capable of positioning itself as a viable alternative. ” She criticizes the reactions of the opposition in exile. «Reza Pahlavi [fils du dernier chah, ndlr] It keeps repeating that the time has come to end the Islamic Republic. However. from the start, he supported the military attack of Israel and justified civil losses, which caused the anger of many Iranians. ” Above all, it regrets the absence of concrete solutions sketched by the opposition. “They finish all their declarations with a vague phrase of the type “The time has come for the people. to finish work”. It is completely disconnected from reality. How are the people supposed to “end the work” While the bombs fall. the missiles fly and the streets are empty under the seat? ”

Sina, 42, professor of physics, is also very critical of the opposition in exile. “What is the people supposed to do exactly?” Even before the war, when people went down the street, they were violently repressed. With this war. the repression led by the government on the pretext of eliminating spies, the risk is even greater! ”

Events quickly evolve in Iran. But at present, the hypothesis of the dismissal of Khamenei and its replacement seems the most likely. This hypothesis was reinforced Monday by a cryptic. unusually short press release published by Tasnim, a press agency affiliated to the body of Islamic revolution, which accused “discredited elements “ unidentified to try to mobilize high -ranking religious in favor of the “Submission and compromise”.

The Iranwire agency reported that former President Hassan Rohani. who was the main nuclear negotiator of uncertain post-khamenei scenarios-liberation Iran, would have been seen in Qom, where he would have met influential Shiite religious authorities to encourage the supreme guide to accept the peace proposals of the United States and Israel.

Other sources claim that another heavyweight in politics. Ali Larijani, former president of the Parliament and veteran of nuclear diplomacy, tried to contact Khamenei to exhort to start direct negotiations with Washington. Larijani would now position himself as a “savior” Potential in a post-Khamenei Iran. taking advantage of his diplomatic experience, his desire to end hostilities with Western countries, his close family ties with the clerical establishment and his relations within the intelligence community. Its ambition would be to maintain sufficient legitimacy within the Iranian power apparatus fractured to preserve stability.

Finally, another name stands out: that of Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president. Unlike Khamenei, Pezeshkian tried to maintain a uncertain post-khamenei scenarios-liberation visible presence in the media. He even appeared publicly. in the middle of a crowd, during a prominent rally denouncing the American attack, which many interpreted as a symbol of challenge and courage. The fact remains that Pezeshkian has no serious influence on Iranian security. intelligence institutions, a crucial element for the success of a possible transition.

In any event. any alternative from the Islamic Republic could find it difficult to gain in legitimacy or to maintain itself, unless it leads to a radical and tangible change in the economic, cultural, social and political orientation of the country.