Japan: the Prime Minister weakened after an electoral debacle

The future of the unpopular Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seems compromised after a bitter electoral defeat that made him lose the majority in the Senate, against the backdrop of inflation and push of the far -right party without Eeito.

During the Sunday elections, during which was renewed 125 of the 248 seats of the upper chamber, the liberal democratic party (PLD, conservative right) of Shigeru Ishiba and its ally Komeito (Center-Droit) won only 47 seats by them, according to the official results reported on Monday, by NHK public television and other media.

Although superior to the initial projections of local media, this result remains below the 50 seats necessary for the two parties to keep their majority. They will only have 122 senators, even if the very fragmented opposition does not appear able to form an alternative majority.

What exacerbate speculation about a resignation from Shigeru Ishiba, 68, in office for only ten months. “The situation is difficult, we have to examine it very humbly and seriously (…) I want to be aware of our responsibility,” he said on Sunday evening.

Declarations which, according to the local press, suggest that he intends to stay in office. The secretary general and number 2 of the PLD, Hiroshi Moriyama,, for his part, estimated that it was necessary to avoid any political emptiness.

The government coalition is already in the minority in the lower chamber of the Parliament, for a debacle in the anticipated legislative elections of the fall-which Shigeru Ishiba himself convened after having taken the head of the PLD in September. The PLD governs Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955, despite frequent changes of leaders.

Japan is now entering “in unknown terrain, with a government in the minority in the two rooms of the Parliament, an unprecedented situation since the Second World War”, recalls Toru Yoshida, professor of political science at Doshisha University.

The Constitutional Democratic Party (center left), the main opposition force, has won 22 seats, and the Democratic Party of the People (centrist) 17 seats. Above all, the anti-immigration populist party Sanseeito, with the slogan “Japan first”, makes a strong breakthrough with fourteen seats won, while there are only two in the current assembly.

Inflation remains strong (+3.3% in June excluding fresh products), driven by a vertiginous outbreak of rice prices that have doubled in the space of a year. To alleviate the inflationary impact, Shigeru Ishiba has extended housing aid, extended from energy subsidies, and has committed to pour aid checks to citizens. The authorities have also released part of the rice strategic reserves to lower prices, without success for the time being.

In addition, Donald Trump’s customs offensive plunged automotive sales to the United States, a sector that represents 8% of jobs in the archipelago. The threat of generalized surcharge of 25% on August 1, weakens the Japanese economic fabric, very dependent on exports.

The financial markets are concerned, them, budgetary drifts, the massifs of recovery plans and aid from the Ishiba government aggravating already heavy debt. Several Tokyo bond emissions have been shunned in recent months, caught up the Japanese rates.