Faced with global warming, all French regions will be affected. But some cities will resist better than others with repeated heat waves, tropical nights and risks linked to the rise of waters. An unprecedented classification reveals the 10 municipalities where it will be “the least hot” tomorrow … and those where life will become suffocating.
Global warming is no longer a distant perspective: it settles in the heart of our daily newspapers. The heat wave episodes are increasing, droughts are intensifying and tropical nights become more frequent, preventing the body from recovering. According to Météo France, the average temperature could increase by 4 ° C by the end of the century compared to the pre -industrial era. With peaks close to 50 ° C in the Southeast. In this context, the choice of place of life takes on a new importance. More and more French people are planning to settle in more temperate regions, where air remains breathable and where heat waves promise to be less extreme.
As the climatologist Olivier Cantat points out: “People are already fleeing for lunch to come to our coasts!” »» An internal climate migration, which raises questions of town planning, housing and water resources. To assess the most exposed and preserved areas, researchers have compiled a wide range of public data. Summer temperatures projected for 2050 and 2100, number of days of very high heat, frequency of tropical nights, risks of forest fires, flood or marine submersion. Result: no city will be spared. But some will get out of it better than others according to The Parisian.
The best armed cities in the face of global warming
Benoît Laignel, professor at the University of Rouen and co -president of “GIEC Normand”insists elsewhere: “Less touched, that doesn’t mean that you’re touched! »» The ranking leads to several cities in the north-west quarter, notably in Brittany, Normandy and Hauts-de-France. The results are clear: Fougères, Hazebrouck, Lannion or Brest are among the cities least threatened by warming. Their major asset? A temperate climate, attenuated by ocean proximity, and a more limited risk of tropical nights. On the horizon of 2100, Fougères would know only dozen of these suffocating nights, against more than a hundred in Perpignan or Marseille.
These cities « refuges » also benefit from an advantageous geographic location. They are located in the back of the side, close enough to the sea to take advantage of its refreshing effect, but not directly exposed to marine submersions. However, the northwest must not scream victory too quickly. Brest, Quimper or Mont-Saint-Aignan, well classified today, remain faced with other threats: storms, risks of floods, coastal erosion. Experts recall that local adaptation – urban developments, green spaces, water management plans – will be crucial to preserve the quality of life in these regions.
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And those that remain the most exposed to climate change
At the other end of the spectrum, the classification highlights the extreme vulnerability of the Southeast. From Sète to Perpignan, via Marseille, Avignon and Montpellier, the projections are alarming. A hundred tropical nights per year, summer temperatures largely exceeding 30 ° C, and absolute records flirting with 50 ° C. These conditions are not only uncomfortable, they threaten public health, accentuate social inequalities and weaken infrastructure. As the climatologist Agathe Drouin explains: “The current situation in the Southeast will be exacerbated in the future. »»
The risks do not stop at heat. Drought, the scarcity of water and the multiplication of fires will accentuate the vulnerability of these territories. The dense urbanization also aggravates the effect of heat island, particularly in metropolises like Marseille. For their inhabitants, the future promises to be difficult without drastic adaptation policies. Experts, however, insist: nothing is written. If greenhouse gas emissions decreased sharply in the coming decades, the increase could be contained. “It’s not inevitable”Recalls Agathe Drouin. But the message is clear. The climate of tomorrow will determine the cards of well-living in France.
