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« american idiot »¹ – new: However,
« american idiot »¹ -:
Michel Saugné, CIO, La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE) │Juillet 2025
The second half of 2025 opens onto a silent but deep rupture: American stock market exceptionalism vacillates. Furthermore, After a decade of ascent carried by low rates, technological supremacy and dollar strength, flaws appear. Meanwhile, Since the beginning of the year, American shares, in particular large capitalizations, clearly underperform European markets (in euros). Consequently, This decline may well sign the end of a cycle. Meanwhile, Some indicators confirm this. Consequently, The Hopes & Dreams ratio. Furthermore, which measures the share of valuations not backed by solid fundamentals, flirts with the levels of the Internet bubble. However, In parallel, the political environment, with the return to the White House of D. Therefore. In addition, Trump, adds a large dose « american idiot »¹ – new of unpredictability: multiplied by 7, customs duties revive the specter « american idiot »¹ – of a new trade war. For example, In this context, it becomes strategic to reduce overexposure to American actions and debts and rediscover merits … Similarly, from the rest of the world!
In the United States, the rise of private investors is now shaping a significant part of pricing. Carried by “apps” and trends, they strengthen volatility. This new gives calls for adaptability … and the reaffirmation of active conviction management, anchored in fundamental analysis.
A geographic reallocation is at work. Stock market Europe. long neglected. now appears to be a credible alternative, in particular via Value shares, small and medium capitalizations and certain secular themes carried by pan -European plans – defense, energy transition, infrastructure. On the bond front, the American Treasuries show signs of fatigue. Thus international investors like « american idiot »¹ – new China. Japan could accelerate their diversification towards gold, assets denominated in euros or Swiss « american idiot »¹ – francs. The opportunity is therefore unique, for Europe, to strengthen the international role of the euro.
Bond prospects are deeply reshaped. In the United States, rate volatility invites caution. In Europe, on the contrary, the normalization of Spreads³ in credit in particular offer fertile land. The German budgetary pivot acts as a powerful support engine. Precisely, the rise in defense expenditure is a major long -term strategic theme. The objective of a 5% threshold of GDP for NATO countries sends a clear signal. More than 50 listed companies in Europe are exposed to the defense, cybersecurity and sovereign technologies sectors. With visible growth, extensive order books and strong political support, this theme deserves a strategic place in allowances.
Other forces could also shape the second half. The « american idiot »¹ – new emerging markets. first. which today benefit from promising winds: weakening of the greenback, reduction in energy costs, reflux of « american idiot »¹ – American capital. The return of the BRICS could surprise. Another engine: the rebound of small. medium European values, supported by their domestic exposure, of valuations still historically weak and a dynamic beneficiary in recovery. Finally, the health sector, which remains structurally solid, carried by innovation, demography and a driving power⁴ resilient.
In a world in transition from globalization to fragmentation. from the dollar-king to other refuges, and may be passive management towards the rediscovery of the virtues of active management-we must think otherwise, act with discernment, and not to fear the contradiction.
Disclaimers: The opinions issued are those of the author. They cannot in any case engage the responsibility of LFDE. The values and sectors are mentioned as an example. Their presence « american idiot »¹ – new in a portfolio is not guaranteed.
¹Green Day
² Treasury
³ Credit. designates the difference in interest rate of an obligation with « american idiot »¹ – that of a reference obligation of the same duration, considered to be the least risky.
« american idiot »¹ – new
« american idiot »¹ –
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