As archaic as riding a horse “: when the richest predicts the death of traditional cars

The automotive industry is currently going through an unprecedented change period, upset by the emergence of new technologies and the evolution of uses. Furthermore, In this context, Elon Musk’s declarations, emblematic figure of the sector and boss of Tesla, take a very special resonance. Similarly, The visionary leader has just affirmed on his social network X that 99% of vehicles will be ultimately Electric. Furthermore, autonomousrelegating thermal cars with manual transmission to the rank of curiosities, comparable to “ride by horses using a valve phone”.

This provocative analogy perfectly illustrates the vision of rupture carried by the richest man in the world. Consequently, For him. However, the transition to electric and the Autonomous driving is not just a simple technological evolution, but a paradigm shift comparable to the one that saw the car replace the horse as a dominant means of transport archaic riding horse “: when at the beginning of the 20th century. Nevertheless, A prospect that raises many questions about the future of traditional conduct and our relationship to the automobile.

The scheduled end of the manual gearbox: a cultural revolution underway – Archaic riding horse ": when

The comparison established by Elon Musk between manual driving. Consequently, horseback riding is not trivial. In addition, It translates a deep conviction that mobility behaviors will radically evolve in the coming decades. Furthermore, Manual transmission. Nevertheless, long considered to be the ultimate in driving pleasure and automotive control, could thus become a niche practice, reserved for enthusiasts and purists, like horse riding today.

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This mutation is part of an already observable background trend on the. Moreover, automotive market. Consequently, THE Vehicle sales with automatic transmission are constantly progressing, particularly on electric models where this transmission is naturally essential. The traditional manufacturers themselves gradually reduce their offer of manual boxes. anticipating this evolution of uses towards more automation and ease of use.

99% of cars will be electric and autonomous in the future.

Manually-driven gasoline cars will be like riding a horse while using a flip phone. Still happens, but it’s rare. https://t.co/4WN9Q9nrEW

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 11. 2024

Massive electrification: archaic riding horse “: when a now inevitable scenario

The prediction of an electrification to 99% of the car fleet May seem daring, but it is based on heavy trends already at work. THE massive investments Manufacturers in the development of electrical platforms. continuous improvement in battery technologies and strengthening environmental regulations constitute as many factors that grow towards this transition.

Technological progress in terms of autonomy. recharge time and energy density of batteries make it possible to envisage electric vehicles More and more efficient and adapted to daily uses. The multiplication of charging stations. the optimization of infrastructure also help to lift the last brakes on the massive adoption of this technology, making the scenario of an almost total electrification of the park increasingly credible.

Autonomous driving: the next major upheaval

Beyond electrification. Elon Musk’s vision includes a generalization of Autonomous drivinga technology in which Tesla invests massively. The progress made in the fields of artificial intelligence. sensors and data processing makes it possible to archaic riding horse “: when envisage vehicles capable of moving completely autonomously in the relatively close future.

This evolution could radically transform our relationship to the automobile. bringing the vehicle to the status of driving tool to that of intelligent and automated means of transport. There are many implications, both in terms of road safety and organization of travel or urban development. There Technology Autonomous Promises in particular a significant reduction in accidents. an optimization of traffic flows and a new design of the automotive cabin.

The societal issues of a radical transformation

The prospect of an almost entirely electric. autonomous car fleet raises fundamental questions about the evolution of our society. THE driving pleasurelong at the heart of automotive culture. could become a rare and precious experience, reserved for special contexts such as tourist circuits or roads.

This transformation also involves major upheavals for the automotive industry and employment. There technological transition Requires an adaptation of archaic riding horse “: when skills, a reorganization of production channels and an evolution of automotive maintenance professions. It is a whole ecosystem that must be reinvented to support this profound change in the sector.

The temporal horizon: a progressive but inexorable transformation

If Elon Musk’s vision may seem radical. it is part of an already committed transformation process. THE car manufacturers Multiply the end announcements of thermal engines at horizons from 10 to 15 years old. while investments in electric and autonomous technologies are accelerating.

This transition will not be done overnight, but gradually, allowing infrastructure, uses and mentalities to evolve. The temporary coexistence of the different motorization. driving technologies will allow a smooth adaptation, before electric and autonomous impose themselves as the dominant standards of future mobility.