China: retail sales below forecasts

Retail sales increased by 3.7% over a year last month. However, according to the National Statistics Office (SNB), well below the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (+4.6%). Nevertheless,

Retail sales in China. the main indicator of household consumption, have progressed less strongly than expected in July, a new worrying sign for the second world economy, according to official figures published on Friday.

Retail sales increased by 3.7% over a year last month. according to the National Statistics Office (SNB), well below the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (+4.6%).

July is the second consecutive month of slowdown in growth compared to forecasts, after the increase of 4.8% of June, less than what was expected (+5.6%).

The prolonged crisis in the real estate sector. a high unemployment rate among young people have been weighing for several years on the morale china: retail sales below forecasts of Chinese consumers.

The unemployment rate rose, still according to the SNB, at 5.2% in July, up two points compared to June.

“In the future. we see few reasons to hope for a significant economic recovery during the rest of the year,” reacted in a Zichun Huang note, economist at Capital Economics.

Industrial production for the month of July was also lower than expectations, with growth of 5.7% over one year, against the 6% provided by Bloomberg analysts.

On Monday evening. US President Donald Trump decided to extend the relaxation with Beijing on the customs rights, while the truce concluded in May by the two powers was to theoretically ended.

Chinese foreign trade jumped in July compared to last year, according to customs data published in early August, thwarting forecasts.

But expeditions to the United States specifically fell 6.1% between June and July.

“The economic dynamics are weakening, despite (…) china: retail sales below forecasts strong growth in exports,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management on Friday.

“I think political decision-makers will wait. observe the speed at which the economy will slow down in the third quarter, then decide if new support measures are necessary in the fourth quarter,” he anticipates.