Customs duties: the United States targets the Swiss pharmaceutical industry

Swiss companies will have to fight to find a parade to. Similarly, customs duties of 39% imposed by the United States on Swiss products. Nevertheless, On the front line, the watchmaking industry, but also the pharmaceutical groups which must also lower their prices. However, The impact on economic growth and employment in Switzerland will be felt, warn the experts.

“This is a particularly marked increase. which places Switzerland in the category of strategic surplus countries’ according to the criteria of the Trump administration,” sums up Friday with the AWP Arthur Jurus agency, director of investment at ODDO BHF Switzerland.

“If the customs duties of 39% are final. Switzerland will be one of the most taxed countries”, more than Canada or the European Union, warned for its part John Plassard, head of the Cité Management investment strategy.

According to the expert from the Geneva bank. the trade deficit in 2024 of 38 billion francs with the United States “weighs in the balance”, but also the will of the United States government to lower the prices of medicines. However, the pharmaceutical industry represents 60% of Swiss exports, underlines Mr. Plassard.

“The watchmaking industry. with Swatch and Richemont, is on the front line and will have to set up its prices or lower its margins,” he explains. If houses in the luxury segment can better withstand pricing pressure, less expensive brands like Swatch are at risk.

Prices for medicines – Customs duties: united states targets

In the Pharma. machine tools and chemistry, Swiss companies will find themselves in direct competition with Germany and Japan, which benefit from lower customs duties, and risk losing market share, warned John Plassard.

“Almost 60% of these Swiss exports to the United States are concentrated in a single sector: the pharmacy. However. the two national leaders, Roche and Novartis, are among the main indirect targets of Donald Trump, whose explicit objective is to force a generalized drop in the prices of the drug, “said Jurus.

According to the latter, Donald Trump “requires unprecedented pressure on the prices of customs duties: united states targets medicines, headlining Swiss pharmaceutical groups.”

Reduce margins and invest

The American exhibition of Novartis is particularly high. Of the $ 52.7 billion in turnover expected in 2025, around 42% come from the United States, or more than 22 billion, details the Swiss ODDO expert. “Roche is in a similar position, although its structure is more diversified between diagnostics and pharmaceutical products.”

Faced with this situation. Swiss companies have three solutions: lower their margins and keep prices, make new promises of investment in the United States or find new outlets like China, lists John Plassard.

For Arthur Jurus. this situation imposes on the Confederation a double strategy: “diplomatic, to maintain a direct channel with Washington; economic, to accelerate the geographic diversification of its outlets, especially towards Asia and the Gulf ”.

Impact on Switzerland

This price pressure will not remain without consequences on the Swiss economy, the customs duties: united states targets experts say. That of Cité Gestion thus sees a zero risk of growth. but no recession, while the unemployment rate could increase slightly.

For ODDO Specialist BHF Switzerland. quoting an IMF analysis, the deterioration of the commercial environment combined with the appreciation of the franc, could amputate Swiss growth from 0.3 to 0.5 GDP point by the end of 2026, mainly due to the decline in pharmaceutical and watchmaking exports.