France does not consume enough electricity, and it is a bad sign

For months, EDF rings the alert. Therefore, In 2023, electricity consumption in France returned to its 2000 level. For example, It has stagnated since 2020 around 450 TWh. Similarly, This stability is due “Both advances in energy efficiency in recent years. In addition, sobriety actions, but also a low economic dynamic and a large -scale decarbonization movement that has not yet started”explains Thomas Veyrenc, the Director General of the Finance Pole, Purchasing and Risks of RTE, the manager of the electricity network. Consequently, “The delay in electrification is problematic for the country”he warns.

On the one hand. Meanwhile, because all recent energy programs on a national scale are based on an electrification of uses with a view to strong reindustrialisation, in particular the revival of nuclear. Meanwhile, On the other hand. In addition, because France “Depends on 60 %fossil fuels, with a france does not consume enough procession of considerable economic dependencies compared to oil producing countries”recalls Thomas Veyrenc. Furthermore, Electrification would reduce the share of fossil fuels in the mix and therefore gain in sovereignty. In addition, But this logic struggles to find its translation in public policies.

A short -term tenable situation only

&#13. Meanwhile, “One of the causes of the delay in electrification is that, overall, electricity suffers from a deficit in competitiveness compared to fossils. Moreover, It is often more interesting to stay on gas or fuel oil. Meanwhile, Passing to electricity represents a significant investment “analysis Nicolas Goldberg, expert from Columbus Consulting. Moreover, The other main reason is that public energy policies focus on support for production. Nevertheless, are very little interested in demand. Moreover, “It is still difficult to get the idea that electrification is an investment. not a charge”analysis of Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, the head of the Energy Center of france does not consume enough the Jacques Delors Institute. However, this delay leads to an imbalance between supply and demand on the network. A short -term manual problem “Thanks to export”explains Thomas Veyrenc. “In the medium term, the economic challenge is to see what are the ability to import electricity from neighboring countries. They are not endless. But if the request for electricity did not take off in the coming years. at one point, it would be a feedback on the supply. ”

The stagnation of demand also poses an economic problem. “If we continue to develop the supply of electricity without supporting demand, market prices may fall. This will weigh on EDF’s results, and therefore its ability to invest ”recalls Nicolas Goldberg. This will also affect public accounts, the State having to support the prices of renewables. “Giving up supporting production is an poor economic calculation for the State”adds the analyst. A simplistic solution france does not consume enough would consist in reducing the offer, by limiting, or even stopping, the development of renewable energies. The objectives on solar. wind at sea and low carbon hydrogen have already been revised downwards in the multi-year energy programming project 2025-2035, whose publication of the decree is postponed at the end of the summer.

Stop renewables is counterproductive

France does not consume enough

The president of the energy regulatory commission. Emmanuelle Wargon, estimated that it will be necessary “Maybe adjusting downwards” The pace of the development of renewable energies. It would be counterproductive, believe the analysts. “Part of the industry will die”warns Phuc-Vinh Nguyen. Sales of electric vehicles have already retreated in Europe 6 % in 2024. The wind industry in France remains fragile. Gigafactories projects in France could be abandoned due to the reluctance of investors. Not to mention the heat pump manufacturers. who cannot follow the government objective of producing france does not consume enough one million a year from 2027, due to a market to sell them.

The solution to get out of this situation quickly is known: developing demand. EDF has the ambition to contribute. by creating 150 TWh of additional electricity request, compared to 2023, by 2035, in industry, the electric vehicle and heating. This objective is not supported by an action plan for the moment. The most effective in the short term is to speed up industry electrification. “We have granted network access rights. by 2030, for more than 21 GW, to 140 industrial projects, some of which are linked to data centers and hydrogen. It would suffice that a quarter of them is materializing to have a significant increase in consumption. as well as real reindustrialisation and electrification ”Note Thomas Veyrenc. If ArcelorMittal concretized its investment in an electric oven in Dunkirk, it would be an excellent signal. #

Europe also out of electrification

France is not the only one to delay in electrification. “We see the same thing at European level. with an electricity consumption that has stagnated at 23 % since 2003”observes Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, the chief of the Energy Center of the Jacques Delors Institute. In question, in particular, a lack of balance in tax policy, which benefits the use of fossils. “There is a desire to revise energy taxation. but it takes the unanimity of the twenty-seven, and it is not certain that all the states play the game.” In addition, the process will take time. “Electricity also suffers from a pricing problem. the geopolitical context and messages sent to consumers, such as retropedaling on the European green pact, suggesting that we are ready to return to the end of the sale of thermal vehicles in france does not consume enough 2035”continues the expert. The support measures for the electrification of industrial uses would generally not be up to par. #

You read an article from the New factory n ° 3743 – June 2025
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