Dow +0,47%, S&P 500 +0,78%, Nasdaq +0,98%, Russell +0,17%, SOX +0,79%, Eurostoxx +0,29%, SMI +0,15%.
The supposed week of all dangers turns into a long, quiet river. The bulls are tarnished there, the bears are returned to their studies, a new historic record for the NASDAQ100 (NDX) to the bell this Friday and yet …
… And yet right a week earlier on 1is August we learn that the American employment market is slowing down, which is strongly displeased to the Grand Blond who suddenly dismiss the manager of this statistics (1 more unemployed is Ballot). In parallel, the prices of the same Sire are confirmed and come into force on Monday but the market remains marble and continues its way to the summits, note in passing that investors have probably chosen to focus on the good results of companies. Nearly 90% of firms have now published their quarterly, they have easily beat expectations for the most part, turnover is satisfactory, estimates had been adjusted downwards but on trading parquets, we take, especially since it is difficult to assess the real impact of these new customs rights, as the investors are obviously considering that the current scenario ( Economy neither too hot nor too cold) remains valid. Wall Street is found in a well-known situation, that of climbing against a “Wall of World”, that is to say in a context full of concerns. In such a situation, many stakeholders remain away, this implies a significant quantity of liquidity waiting to be put to work, general pessimism is often in prices, the increase gradually force skeptics to get out of the wood and to enter the dance, it is the famous Fomo (Fear of Missing Out), often accompanied by Tina (There is no alternative goal). records lead to others.
Add to that a Fed long considered to be resigned by buyers, who desperate that she took up her cycle of rate drops. However for the past ten days and the Combo Emploi / Prices, the wind has turned, the Fed Funds are now hoping for 2 to 3 cups this year again, the first from September 17 (89% probabilities). An accommodating Fed constitutes a kind of “put”, an almost insurance against the decline for actors in the equity market. Wall Street is found at the highest or almost this Monday morning, it is preparing for the consumer price index (US CPI) which will be published tomorrow, the results of companies are almost finished, one wonders what will stop the movement currently in progress.
Friday is without major news, the NDX takes the opportunity to reach a new higher of all time in the bell, in summer volumes and with a slightly positive breadth. The S & P500 equity (SPW) index only grabbed 0.14% against +0.78% to the SPX, this indicates that once again, it is the tech giants that stick to it, moreover the podium of the SPX day consists of tech, communication services and financial. Note in passing that the NDX is not over -going, that a Golden Cross occurred at the end of the week and that the Momentum on Tech remains solid. Volatility is missing a little more on Friday, the VIX loses an additional 8.4%, it ends at 15.15 and has room up to 12.70. On the bond market side, the yield of US 10 years dates back 7 base points last week, it evolves this morning at 4.26%, note that a Death Cross occurred on August 4 and that its next support area is 4.20% – 4.18%.
Over the week, the SPX wins 2.4%, the NDX 4%, the Eurostoxx 3.5%and the SMI manages to grab 0.4%, which should upset that you know, actively busy trying to nail our good old Helvetia. Well even if “the pussy has a hard time”, our good old SMI remains standing, perhaps the price price that the country’s firms have been used to doing with opposite winds for more than 50 years and that they probably did not wait for the Federal Council to go to Washington to prepare for the Tsunami of customs duties. The Pharma remains a separate subject, for the rest it seems that it is not as catastrophic as fears, to follow.
The dollar leaves thinking, the dollar index is currently testing important support, the EUR/USD pair is evolving this morning at 1.1657, it remains technically weakened (for the dollar) and the rate decreases to come, while the ECB is on pause, the versatility of the President of the United States, the American job market which shows signs of cracks and the recent appoint Fed, all this contributes to considering rainy days for the greenback.
We look at a few notable weekly performance of the past week. Apple climbs 5.1% after the American president announced customs duties for technological companies investing in production in the United States. Apple promises to invest $ 100 billion, in addition to the 500 billion already planned over four years to make servers and parts in the United States. Tesla wins 2.2% after the board of directors grants Elon Musk a bonus of 96 million shares, worth $ 23.7 billion, provided that it remains focused on the company (we believe to dream). Despite his multiple activities, he launched the Robotaxis service and supervised SpaceX, which sends four astronauts at ISS after a failure in June. Palantus jumped 7.8% thanks to its best quarterly results, with a turnover exceeding for the first time $ 1 billion and an annual increase. Its income increased by 48%, supported by demand for artificial intelligence and American government contracts. Pfizer takes 5.2% after having noted its annual profit forecasts, despite the uncertainties on customs tariffs and the pressure of the president to lower the prices of medicines. CEO Albert Bourla remains optimistic about a possible agreement. McDonald’s increased by 3% with a rebound in sales on a comparable perimeter in the second quarter, helped by its McValue menu at low prices. The company is trying to retain consumers despite rising costs and pressure on low -income households. Intel fell 3.1% after the White House tenant publicly called his Tan Lip-Bu CEO to resign, accusing him of conflicting links with China. Tensions already exist within the advice on the strategy to be adopted for the production of fleas.
The barrel of WTI Light Crude fell 4.3% over the week. The market is concerned about a slowdown in growth induced by new customs duties, but also because of the recent OPEC+ decision to advance the lifting of its production reductions. Gold is unchanged over the week but evolves close to its record, the ounce currently deals with $ 3362, anticipations of Fed rate cuts are not unrelated, the defensive side of yellow metal either.
Scott Bessent declares that the United States would have largely completed negotiations with countries that have not yet concluded a trade agreement by the end of October, Nikkei reports.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicates that Ukraine would not give in a territory to end the war with Russia. Mark Rutte, NATO, declares to ABC that any progress towards peace would require the territory to be “on the table” during negotiations.
No major indicator to report to the macro-economic menu of the day.
Novartis announces that the two Phase III clinical studies on Ianalumab have reached the main evaluation criterion in patients with Sjögren’s disease. Moody’s retrograde vontobel in A3 and raises the perspective to Stable. NVIDIA and AMD will have to donate 15% of their income from flea markets in China in the United States in exchange for the green light to export, according to an American official interviewed by Reuters. Apple has won 13.3% over the week, its highest weekly percentage increase since 2020. The CEO of Intel will go to the White House today, according to the WSJ. Bill Ackman proposes to merge Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal National Mortgage Association). CATL would suspend the production of its lithium mine in China for three months for license issues, according to Bloomberg, which took off the Chinese and Australian lithium producers on the stock market this morning.
This morning and this morning in Asia this morning, the indices treat upwards except Seoul which abandons 0.1%. Tokyo is closed, Hong Kong grabble 0.04%, Shanghai rises by 0.33%and the NIFTY50 wins 0.31%. The future SPX increased by 0.2% and Europe does the same at the opening.
Programmed meeting between the President of the United States and Putin this Friday in Alaska. On the menu the war in Ukraine, in the absence of the main interested party, everything is fine.