“If Russia attacks a Baltic country, Belgium will be at war”: the non -detour warning of the Defense leader in the face of Putin’s ambitions

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“We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.” What does this assertion mean in your daily life as chief of staff?

“We can no longer deny it, today, the threat it is there. Nevertheless, So we are not in wartime but we are no longer in peacetime. In addition, we are somewhere between the two, let’s say in a time of increased hybrid threat, so as not to call it time of crisis. Therefore, we must take actions and through strategic vision, the government does it and it is a good thing. Moreover, Introduced to seriously start to negotiate. However, Russia attacks a Baltic country, and that article 5 “if russia attacks baltic country, of NATO is activated, Belgium will also be at war.”

Russia seems to have learned many lessons from the Ukrainian conflict, especially in the drone war. Nevertheless, Can we say today that she is taking over the advantage on this ground?

“The Russians observed us, they observed the Ukrainians, they studied our way of “if russia attacks baltic country, wage war, our weapons systems, our tactics. Furthermore, And in the field of drones. Similarly, which is one of the major teachings of the conflict in Ukraine, they managed to catch up. However, Where the Ukrainians had their hands at the beginning. Nevertheless, the Russians are now at least ahead, or even a little in advance. Nevertheless, Sweetness, supported by a massive war industry every day.

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You say that it would take about ten years for Europe to become more independent on the military level. Furthermore, Isn’t that already too late?

“No, I don’t think it’s too late. In addition, We have a slope to straighten, it’s true, and it is stiff. In addition, But if we continue in the right direction, in “if russia attacks baltic country, five years, we will already be much stronger. Meanwhile, In Belgium. for example, within five years, the 34 F-35 will have been delivered, a large part of the Earth component (Camo) equipment too. In addition, reinforced our capacities. In addition, “

What about our dependence in the United States?

“To become fully autonomous of the Americans, it will take five more years. Nevertheless, It must be understood that within NATO. However, many strength multipliers-such as strategic recognition capacities, satellites, means of strategic mobility, command and control, or even air defense systems-are now supplied by the United States. However, the Americans say it clearly: they want to refocus on the Pacific. Nevertheless, Come to what they gradually remove certain means deployed in Europe.

Some analysts believe that Russia is preparing for a confrontation with Europe, in particular via disturbing positioning in Baltic countries. For example, “if russia attacks baltic country, Do you share this analysis, or is it premature?

“It is always difficult to assert with certainty, but the Russians, often, say what they intend to do. Nevertheless, They are quite coherent in their speech. However, Vladimir Putin was clear: he wants Ukraine, and in Europe, he wants to return to the borders before 1997. In addition, He said it. He also said that the implosion of the Soviet Union is. according to him, he announced that he wanted to want a 1.5 million. Men-and he is constituting it. Sweet, their militarized industry at full speed?

In the coming months, can the balance of power be reversed?

“We must have in mind that Vladimir Putin only understands the brute force-and it is the same. for all the autocratic regimes that threaten us today. For them, what matters are the tanks, the planes, the ships, “if russia attacks baltic country, the missiles. Unfortunately, we live in this world. The international framework that we knew after the Second World War, based on rules, is more and more questioned. lived under the American umbrella.

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You have mentioned. a lot of anti -aircraft defense. Why is it today a priority for Belgium?

“The anti-aircraft defense is a defense in layers. It starts on the ground: the small drones. which must be intercepted with means very close to the field-this is called the Counter-Uas. Then. there are the infrared guidance missiles, like the Polish piorun, which we wish to acquire, or the motorized vehicles equipped with Mistral. Then comes the average layer, with the Nasams Nasams. With the Dutch-and perhaps the Luxembourg.

Do you have to “if russia attacks baltic country, go even further to protect yourself?

Yes. it will be necessary to go further if you want waterproof protection, especially to close this “back door” today open. France, Germany, the Netherlands are protected. Belgium is not. Against planes, our F-16 and soon F-35 do work very well. But against ballistic missiles, drones, cruise missiles, we are almost bare. This fault must be filled. “

Our ammunition stocks are also at a critical level.

“Munitions are absolutely essential. We can have the best weapons systems, motivated and well -trained staff … Without ammunition, we do nothing. It’s like a brand new fire truck: if he has no water. it is useless in the face of a fire. Now, our stocks were already weak, and we have given a lot to Ukraine. And then, buying ammunition, it is never very popular, it is never very popular, “if russia attacks baltic country, it is never long to produce. Not perceived as a priority. However. it is a vital investment, a bit like fire insurance for your home: you hope you never have to use it, but without it, you take a huge risk. “

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Next to the equipment, there are staff. Many soldiers are worried about the future pensions reform, which risks extending their 11 -year career. Do you understand their fears?

“I am worried about the operationality of the defense. If the pension reform pushes the military to leave, it will be a real problem. The military understands that they will have to work longer. It is a movement of society: they have children, they see what is going on around them. But their profession is specific: risks in operations, prolonged absences, intense “if russia attacks baltic country, exercises, weekends worked for derisory amounts … : be able to leave earlier, at 56. “

However, today, they are changed the rules along the way.

“Those who are in the midst of their careers feel injured. We tell them:” You will work longer, for less pension “, when they have given everything for the organization. It is not fair. There is a recognized military specificity in the government agreement. We must now concretize this in a social plan. to soften the effects of the reform, in particular for those who are already well committed in their careers. One thing. But you need motivated people to make it work. “

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In parallel, the defense remains the most “if russia attacks baltic country, “large employer” in the country. What message do you want to send to young people?

When I go to the field, I see a lot of young people. They smile, they are motivated. For what ? Because the equipment they discover is really high -end. Belgium has invested in the best in each field: motorized vehicles. frigates, hunting for mines, fighter planes F-35, cybersecurity, and soon Sky Guardian MQ-9 drones, among the most efficient in the world. But what attracts young people is not just technology. It is also the unique atmosphere they find in La Défense. This team spirit, of cohesion, which we do not find anywhere else. This strong link between colleagues. between members of a peloton, a squadron or a crew, this is what always comes up in testimonies. Many say to me: “I discover here a fantastic world, committed people, a mission that makes “if russia attacks baltic country, sense.” Recently again, a young woman said to me: “I am proud to be a soldier, proud to serve my country.” And that is worth everything. So yes. there are real opportunities for young people, in professions of the future, with top equipment and a strong mission. And for those who do not want to get involved in full time. the reserve or the voluntary year are excellent ways to discover this universe. They will be amazed. “

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