Donald Trump had promised it: it would be beautiful, Huge, Incredible. He kept his word. To celebrate Independence Day, the American Congress voted a tax reform of a magnitude rarely seen from Reagan. Called with Emphase One Big Beautiful Bill, it stacks tax cuts, budget cuts and all -rounded reminders. At first glance, a liberal dream. In reality? A cash machine for the richest, a risky bet on future growth … and a shock wave that will not spare European markets.
A contribution from Fidel Martin, president of Exoé
America chooses recovery at all costs
At the heart of the reform: a massive drop in corporate tax, a reduction in income tax for the wealthiest, and a cascade of tax credits. Objective: immediate consumption of consumption and the equity market.
But this explosive cocktail is funded… on credit. The federal deficit is expected to exceed $ 2,000 billion in 2026. For Washington, this is no longer a problem. Debt? A political tool. A power lever. America is in debt with the arrogance of those who know that the whole world continues, for the moment, to buy their treasury bills.
A lesson for Europe? Yes, but not the one we grow
The temptation is great for some European economists to see a model: a simpler, more direct, more pro-business taxation. But at what price? Europe has neither the dollar as a refuge currency, nor the same political tolerance to the deficit.
And above all, it does not have the same risk culture. Where Trump plays with public debt, the euro zone remains stuck in budgetary prudence too often sterile. The Union still questions its rules of stability while the United States injects hundreds of billions into its economy.
Markets? Already adjusting
I see it every day: investors anticipate. The dollar is strengthening in the short term, American cyclical values are starting up on the rise, the refuges assets are crumbling, and long rates go up. But the embellished could be short -lived: if inflation redecolles or the Fed tightens too quickly, the euphoria could quickly give way to a severe correction.
And what does Europe do during this time? She watches the train pass. Worse: she suffered the tremors without drawing the levers. For asset managers, it is urgent to rethink the international allowance, to prepare for increased volatility and not to be hypnotized by the American mirage.
Between fascination and lucidity
One Big Beautiful Bill is not a simple tax event: it is a political, economic and symbolic act. Trump redraws the contours of American capitalism in his own way, brutal, spectacular, electoral.
But that it serves as a alarm signal. Europe can no longer be content to observe. She must reinvent her own vision of growth, assuming strong choices, daring an incentive taxation, but above all coherent.
Because by looking at Wall Street hoping for a miracle, we risk forgetting that our economic future will not come from a carbon copy of the American model. It will come from our ability to invent ours.
Read also: European budget 2028-2034: a plan of 2,000 billion euros which divides the EU