“The future may be brutal in Switzerland”

The historian Olivier Meuwly takes an uncompromising look at the Swiss failure of American customs duties. Furthermore, does not despair of the rebounding capacities of entrepreneurs. Therefore, He is sure: now the European question will make noise.

From August 1ᵉʳ, when Donald Trump announced that he was intended to impose Swiss imports in the United States 39%, did you expect confirmation of this blow six days later?
Olivier Meuwly: We all hoped that this was not the case, but the negative signals were there.

Negative signals?
In two or three days, what should we have done to reverse the situation? Moreover, What had not been done before? Similarly, Karine Keller-Sutter and Guy Parmelin went to Washington with obviously too late proposals.

How would you qualify what Switzerland has just suffered?
A huge disappointment. Therefore, Switzerland lives by free trade, as large as possible. For example, And now her American partner, one of the most important for her, breaks all the rules in this area. In addition, With the historian’s gaze, I would say that once again, Switzerland must “the future may brutal switzerland” fight with a protectionist environment.

That’s to say?
In the 19th century. Therefore, when the industrial revolution was in full swing, Switzerland diversified its markets to bypass those who closed or those with whom it was complicated to trade, such as France, Germany and Italy. However,

At the time, we constantly negotiated the customs prices. Similarly, The Confederation itself was protected with combat prices. Similarly, It preserved its agricultural market, for example.

At that time, did everyone play for themselves?
Yes and no. Therefore, The first experience of an economic alliance is the German customs union, under the direction of Prussia. Nevertheless, It is the economist Friedrich List who proposed and achieved this union in 1833. However, Which became a “the future may brutal switzerland” big problem for Switzerland. Similarly, because it is no longer possible for it to negotiate with each German State.

Without going back to the old regime. Meanwhile, do we find in the past foreign leaders who have had as little regard as Donald Trump towards Switzerland?

In 1889, there was a matter of a German provocative agent who had been unmasked in Switzerland, the Wolgemuth affair, a socialist. Bismarck wanted to make an alliance with the Russians. the Austrians to put pressure on Switzerland, who allowed himself to be a democracy in a European whole which was not democratic. In the Federal Council. Droz Le Neuchâtel and Ruchonnet Le Vaudois, had stood up so that Wolgemuth was not delivered to Germany, “the future may brutal switzerland” against the advice of Swiss Germanophiles. Later, in the 20th century, Switzerland had a great enemy, Stalin. The Soviet tyrant hated the Swiss.

In its lost standoff. as it stands, with the United States of Donald Trump, Switzerland appeared to you weak and isolated?
Weak, surely. Isolated, it is a little by nature, since it is not part of a supranational whole. We can of course think that she would not have been taxed so strongly if she was a member. of the European Union.

Why do you judge Switzerland was weak against Donald Trump?
At this stage, I cannot say exactly why Switzerland was weak. There are external and internal reasons probably. We don’t know everything. We don’t know “the future may brutal switzerland” much, frankly. A lot of cyclical elements remain unknown for the time being. Information will undoubtedly come out that will understand the causes of this state of weakness.

In an era that sees a Trump putting the business conventions in pieces. the base of Swiss prosperity, does Switzerland not appear in danger?
This is one of the issues. Again, it appears isolated. Does it still have an interest in this isolation? We’ll see.

The debate is not closed. What many people will surely say to themselves. now is that if the Swiss negotiators have worked with the European Union within the framework of bilateral III, as they did with the Americans in the context of customs duties, it promises! The future may be brutal in Switzerland.

We can also say that Switzerland may be lucky to have finished its negotiations on bilateral III at the end of last year. otherwise Europeans, seeing Donald Trump trafficking it, may have been less inclined to certain compromises with it.
Maybe. We don’t know, but the remark is legitimate.

Two options are open: some will plead in favor of bilateral agreements III with the EU so as to get Switzerland out of isolation. Others will conversely fight these agreements, arguing that Switzerland should not “be eaten” by Europe as it has just “been eaten” by the United States. Needless to say, the debate will be tense.

Has Switzerland missed something by refusing, “the future may brutal switzerland” of a hair, to join the European Economic Area, the EEA, in 1992?
It is not impossible, but we do not redo the story. Anyway, I don’t think the EEE would have protected us from Trump.

Switzerland seems nonetheless unarmeded by the 39% of Trump, right?

The Federal Council pushes entrepreneurs to take over, to come to the rescue of politicians. How do you interpret this call?
It may surprise, but it’s not something new in Switzerland. This tells us that in Switzerland. the public authorities work with the private people and that the State is not the only one to hold the truth. This is what surprises me in this great failure: how is it done. given the close ties between the Federal Council and the economic “the future may brutal switzerland” circles, that we did not feel the wind turning earlier? It’s a mystery for me. I am not shocked in itself that the Federal Council calls on entrepreneurs.

Is it in the DNA of Switzerland’s economic development.

It was not the state. When there were no consulates abroad. because it was too expensive, because we considered that we were not a great power, it was the entrepreneurs who managed, who played the role of consuls. This public-private cooperation is old, it will make the left scream, but it was not harmful.

What do you think of the UDC statements. which suggests that federal advisers have acted in order to weaken Switzerland in its negotiations with the United States “the future may brutal switzerland” to promote the bonds of the Confederation with the European Union?

By its allegations aimed at designating scapegoats, the UDC confirms that its vision of a Swiss drawing its power from its splendid isolation is completely false. If it required new proof that Switzerland is not immune to its planet. as tried to make us believe the UDC, we have it in full with the gabelia of American customs duties.