And now? The customs duties imposed by Donald Trump make the markets move, but the Swiss scholarship does not seem to be negatively impacted.Image: Seth Wenig / AP
Trump rights of 39% entered into force Thursday morning. But the Swiss scholarship remains serene. Here are the three main reasons.
07.08.2025, 19:5407.08.2025, 19:54
Florence Vuichard / ch media
Since 6 am, it has been official, Swiss exports to the United States have now been struck by additional customs duties by 39%. A blow for an exporting country, a shock for many Swiss companies.
The Federation of Industrialists Swissmem evokes a “disaster scenario” now a reality. However, the Swiss stock markets do not give in panic, and the clues were all in the green on Thursday.
The Swiss Market Index (SMI), which brings together the 21 largest listed companies in the country, increased approximately 0.5% at the opening. The wider SPI even won 0.7%. At midday, the progression was even more important. Apparently irrational behavior, which analysts explain by three key elements.
The size of size
Donald Trump, at least for the moment, spared the pharmaceutical industry of the 39%blow. This clearly reduces the impact on Switzerland, since this sector alone represents about half of Swiss exports to the United States. This exception could even make the difference between a recession, and a simple slowdown in the Swiss economy.
If the Pharma were to be included in the new taxes, the potential decrease in Swiss GDP could exceed 1%, according to Hans Gersbach calculations, co -director of the EPFZ Critical Research Center (KOF). He warns:
“There is a real risk of recession”
Swiss multinationals produce on site
SMI companies are global groups, with multiple locations and production channels largely on site. Their activity is also very diverse, as Daniel Kalt, UBS chief economist points out:
“They are therefore less exposed to customs duties you might think”
About two-thirds of the turnover made in the United States by Swiss companies would come from American soil products, and the remaining third party from Switzerland. Mainly drugs, says Daniel Kalt. And the latter are currently exempt from new taxes.
The situation is quite different for SMEs, especially those that export very specialized products directly from Switzerland. Daniel Kalt puts it into perspective, however:
“But these companies are very rarely listed on the stock market”
It is optimism that dominates
Part of the customs chaos orchestrated for months by Trump is already integrated into scholarship prices. In addition, the markets do not believe that these 39% will last a very long time, as Daniel Kalt explains:
“Many expect Switzerland to negotiate a 15%rate, that applied to the European Union”
An opinion shared by Thomas Heller, chief economist of the Frankfurter Bankgesellschaft. Trump always starts with extreme threats, and then be conciliatory. On the stock market, the watchword remains: “It will work out.”
As long as these customs duties remain in force, whether it is a few days or weeks, the Swiss economy will be able to take the shock, say Daniel Kalt and Thomas Heller. On the other hand, if these 39% were to last for months, even years, and in the long term the pharmaceutical sector, the morale of the markets could also end up taking a blow.
Translated from German by Joel Espi
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In the United States, Switzerland will be even more taxed than it feared. The Federal Council is very disappointed with this blow.
The Federal Council has taken note of “regret” of additional customs duties imposed by the United States. Switzerland continues to aim for a solution negotiated with the United States, said the spokesperson for the Federal Finance Department (DFF).