Wall Street: the decline that everyone had seen coming

At 98% probability, it is folded: the federal reserve will cut its rates by a quarter of a point in September. Not because the economy gallops, but because it starts to box.

The reasoning is simple. “Core” inflation has progressed more than expected, at the highest rate since January, but the overall figures have been spared by the bulk of recent customs duties. In parallel, the job market gives signs of fatigue: low creations of posts outside agriculture (non -Farm Payrolls), rumors of internal eddies to the Fed … All of this fuels the idea that the central bank is ready, politically and institutionally, to reopen the monetary tap.

A Vix to the floor is not synonymous with stability, but reflecting expectations … which can switch overnight. At the moment, a drop in rate in September seems to be engraved in marble, but on the stock market, everything goes very quickly: an inflation figure that skids, a job on the surprise job, a political event that explodes, and everything is to be redone.

The irony is that the more we anticipate the decline, the more we “praise” it in the actions, the less margin there is to climb when it arrives. If the Fed cuts its rates, Wall Street will barely raise an eyebrow and if it retains the status quo, it will be the grimace soup.

In this relative calm, some sorted out: Coreweave, darling of data centers doped by Nvidia, lost more than 9% after heavier quarterly losses than expected. Conversely, Eli Lilly scores a point in India with a simplified pen for its slimming blockbuster, Mounjaro. And in energy, Venture Global flies after a legal victory against Shell on LNG contracts.

Beyond business results, politics invites itself into the mood of the markets, always with Donald Trump at the center. The White House concocts an income sharing agreement with flea manufacturers (NVIDIA and AMD included) reporting a more interventionist turn against China. The President also prepares a European tour on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before a summit with Vladimir Putin.

Trump has also just appointed an economist faithful to the head of the department who compiles official statistics. EJ Antoni proposes to suspend the monthly publication of the employment report to favor more reliable data in the longer term. Interesting idea on paper, but devilishly politically timely. Trump takes the opportunity to pay for the head of the boss of Goldman Sachs after an alarmist study on the effects of customs tariffs, and to relaunch his weekly pressure on the president of the Fed, which he deems too lukewarm, by bringing out an old legal file on the construction of the central bank. And to drive the nail, he hammers that customs duties are “paid by others” and report “trillions”. In reality, we are talking about a few hundred billions and no one really knows who pays, except that many American consumers pay the price. But it doesn’t matter: the main thing is the message.

The quotes of the day:

• Dollar Index : 97,830
• Or: 3 357 USD
• Crude oil (BRENT): 66,1 USD (WTI) 63,12 USD
• UNITED STATES 10 ans: 4,22%
• BITCOIN: 120 640 USD

In business news:

• Simon Property Group has launched an offer of $ 1.5 billion in bonds to refinance its debt and for general operation, whose fence is scheduled for August 19.
• Hotel Ventures brigade has signed an agreement with Marriott to develop six new hotels.
• Apollo Global Management will acquire a majority participation in Kelvion, a German thermal exchange services company, from Triton. The transaction should be finalized between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.
• Figma and Motiff have settled their intellectual property disputes in the United States and Singapore, Motiff agreeing to stop the sale of its publishing tool worldwide, with the exception of China.

• Coreweave shares have dropped by more than 9% after posting a greater loss than expected in the second quarter, which aroused concerns among investors about the financial viability of the company, despite strong growth in its income thanks to artificial intelligence.

• The American government has secretly integrated monitoring devices into IA flea deliveries in order to prevent their illegal diversion to China, focusing on high -risk deliveries involving business products such as Dell, Super Micro, NVIDIA and AMD.

• The Caspian Pipeline Consortium increased its oil exports by 6% in July, reaching 6.551 million tonnes compared to June.

• Eli Lilly launched in India his injector pen injector of Mounjaro meathing medication at the price of 160 dollars, thus intensifying competition with Novo Nordisk.
• Devyani International, the operator of KFC and Pizza Hut in India, announced a significant drop in its profits in the first quarter due to the increase in costs and the low demand.
• KKR plans to sell VIRIDOR for 7 billion pounds STERLING next month.
• Ameriprise Financial revealed to hold 4.919% of the capital of RS Group.
• Insmed received authorization from the FDA for its medication against bronchitasia not linked to cystic fibrosis.
• Exxon Mobil was awarded blocks in deep waters in Trinité-et-Tobago and plans to invest 21.7 MDSUSD.

Analysts recommendations:

• AvalonBay Communities, Inc .: Morgan Stanley notes its recommendation as “neutral” to “overlap” and lowers its price objective from 228 to 225 USD.
• Caci International Inc: Goldman Sachs notes its recommendation to “sell” to “buy” and notes its price as a price from 407 USD to 544 USD.
• Cf Industries Holdings, Inc .: Barclays notes its recommendation as “neutral” to “overlap” and raises its price as a price from 95 USD to 100 USD.
• Insmed Incorporated: Morgan Stanley lowers his recommendation to “overlap” to “neutral” and raises its target of courses from USD 112 to 126 USD.
• On Holding AG: Jefferies lowers its recommendation as “neutral” to “underperform” and reduces its price of courses from 50 USD to 40 USD.
• Palo Alto Networks, Inc .: Deutsche Bank notes its “neutral” recommendation to “buy” and notes its price of price from 200 USD to 220 USD.
• Qualys, Inc .: Zacks notes his note as “neutral” in “outperformance” and raises his price as a course from 140 USD to 149 USD.
• Vertiv Holdings CO: William O’Neil & Co Incorporated notes his recommendation for “drop” to “buy”.
• Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc .: RBC Capital maintains its note “outperformance” and reduces its price of courses from 43 USD to 28 USD.
• Amentum Holdings, Inc .: Goldman Sachs maintains his neutral recommendation with a course of courses noted from 21 to 26 USD.
• Cava Group, Inc .: TD Cowen maintains its recommendation “buy” and reduces its price target from 120 USD to 90 USD.
• Celinese Corporation: Baird maintains its “outperformance” recommendation and reduces its price target from 67 to 50 USD.
• Circle Internet Group, Inc .: Guotai Haitong Securities maintains its purchase recommendation and reduces the price of courses from 305.30 USD to 212 USD.
• Coreweave, Inc .: Deutsche Bank maintains its “neutral” recommendation and raises its price target from 50 to 125 USD.
• Fortinet, Inc .: Daiwa Securities maintains its “outperform” recommendation and reduces its price target from 110 to 80 dollars.
• Lumenum Holdings Inc .: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its “outperformance” recommendation and notes its price of price from 105 USD to 150 USD.
• Monday.com Ltd. : CITIC SECURITIES CO LTD maintains its purchase recommendation with a course brought back from 342 USD to 267 USD.
• NVIDIA Corporation: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its recommendation “overlap” and notes its price of course from 180 USD to 225 USD.
• Parsons Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its “neutral” recommendation with a price of courses noted from 65 to 85 USD.
• PBF Energy Inc .: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation with a course brought from 30 USD to 23 USD.
• The Carlyle Group Inc .: Jefferies maintains its “keep” recommendation and notes its price of course from 54 USD to 66 USD.