We asked the question for you | Does Lucien Bouchard worry about nothing?

Because news often arouses questions, a chronicler of dialogue in excavation one for you

“We spit in our hands, and we start again,” suggested Jacques Parizeau following the 1995 referendum.

Is it the moment finally come… or not?

The debate on this subject among the sovereignists was revived last week by former Prime Minister Lucien Bouchard, during interviews in Radio-Canada. He seeks to cool the ardor of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

The current chief of the Parti Québécois promises that if he becomes Prime Minister of Quebec, he will hold a referendum on sovereignty from his first mandate.

Lucien Bouchard rather suggests him to “think seriously before maintaining his commitment to make a referendum”.

Free translation: the former Prime Minister believes that this promise is a bad idea, which could harm both the Parti Québécois and, more broadly, to the interests of Quebecers.

Is he right to worry?

After its remarkable exit, I discussed with three political scientists.

First, in terms of the fate of the PQ.

It would of course be very delicate for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to deny his promise before the next elections. And it would necessarily harm his image. But if he does not do so, Lucien Bouchard is convinced that it will be the equivalent of offering a “beautiful gift” to the liberals, who would take advantage of it to make gains at the expense of the sovereignists.

“We do not have many observations and we cannot be sure of much in these fields, but I think it is plausible that a referendum harms the Parti Quebecois, says André Blais, professor of political science at the University of Montreal.

“The big question is: is it just a little bit or a lot?” I guess it could possibly remove a few points. Maybe four or five points. It is not huge, but in a very tight election, it can make the difference. »»

I asked the same question to Éric Bélanger, political scientist at McGill University and one of the authors of a small relevant essay to understand the current dynamics, The new Quebec voterpublished in 2022.

It has been said for a few years to attend a recomposition of the partisan space in Quebec. The national question was no longer the main issue which structured the vote of Quebecers and the CAQ had managed to put an end to the alternation between the PQ and the PLQ.

Hence the radiant success of the CAQ in 2018 and 2022.

But here is a “fatigue has settled in the Legault government, which is understandable”, underlines this expert, who is also cooting of the new research chair of Quebec on democracy, living together and common values.

Many Quebecers are therefore looking for a spare solution to the CAQ.

Thus, what we observe is that “the ascent of the Parti Québécois is not associated with a return of the national question, which leads to the warning of Mr. Bouchard”.

The political scientists also insist that the political context is very different from that of the 1990s.

It is useful to recall, among other things, that the 1995 referendum took place in the wake of the failure of constitutional negotiations. And that support for sovereignty was much higher.

The situation outside the borders of Quebec is not the same either. Hurricane Trump has not finished doing damage and provoking uncertainty on the North American continent and even further.

“It is a more difficult context than in 1995. The historical context is not the same, nor the geopolitical reality in which Quebec is evolving, while free trade is less guaranteed than it was,” says Eric Montigny, professor in the Department of Political Science at Laval University.

Test co -author To conquer poweron the history of the “third way” in Quebec, the political scientist suggests, for example, to examine what happened during the federal elections of April 28.

The nature of the sovereignist project has also changed, recalls Éric Montigny. We “evacuated the Canadian dimension”. That is to say that this time, we do not mention the notion of sovereignty-association or that of a partnership with Canada.

Under this light, we understand better why Lucien Bouchard premature judges the promise of the PQ to spit in the hands and to start again.

But he also worries about the impact of a possible third referendum defeat.

For several separatists, it would be dramatic not to hold a referendum shortly.

But for the former Prime Minister, it is to lose this referendum which would be “dramatic”. This is what he repeated in an interview with Alec Castonguay.

Éric Bélanger does not pronounce this word, but he nevertheless notes that the two referendum defeats have had negative consequences.

“And rebuilding the Quebec balance of power has taken several years, especially after the speech of Mr. Parizeau,” he recalls.

Are recent polls, which seem to demonstrate that sovereignty seduces more young people than before, are they not encouraging for those who dream of the rapid holding of a referendum?

Both Éric Montigny and Eric Bélanger said they should be taken with tweezers. It will take other studies to determine if there is a real and significant trend there.

As for overall support for sovereignty, it would currently be 36 % after distribution of undecided, according to the most recent light survey on this subject. We therefore speak here of a significantly lower support than it was in the 1990s (and as a reminder: 49.42 % of Quebecers had voted in 1995).

“It can move,” recalls André Blais. We know it has moved, over time. But to move 10 points, it appears very improbable, even if it is not impossible. »»

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