Given the many levels of customs duties and exemptions imposed by the United States, the actual rate of prices imposed in Canada could be much lower than what key figures suggest, say economists.
The effective rate is the average import duties paid on goods intended for the United States, which take into account the exemptions related to the Canada-UNITE-Mexico (ACEUM) agreement, underlines the main economist of the Royal Bank (RBC), Claire Fan.
Even if the American president, Donald Trump, increased general customs duties in Canada at 35 % at the beginning of August, the goods in accordance with ACEUM are still exempt.
The Royal Bank estimates that the effective rate of customs tariffs on Canadian goods is closer to 6 % today. Its calculation is based on data on the volume of exports of 2024.
Other series of data offer measures slightly different from the customs pressure facing businesses.
According to those published by the United States Census Office, the effective rate imposed in Canada was around 2.4 % in June, before the entry into force of the last wave of customs duties, said Mr.me Fan.
Imperfect indicator and confusion
This figure reflects the real rights paid on the Canadian-American border, she said, and could be invalidated due to the delays in declaration and the general confusion concerning customs levels among companies.
“It is not surprising that there is a certain confusion to customs,” she pointed out.
The effective rate could also be lower in practice because American companies turn away from imported Canadian products, subject to highest rights, adds Claire Fan.
If the effective rate offers a simple explanation for the total level of American customs duties with which Canada faces, the RBC economist warns that he can underestimate the effects on the ground.
“This is not the best indicator of the severity of customs duties, but it is unfortunately one of the only ones we have,” she said.
Compliance with ACEUM does not overall exercise Canadian sectoral rights products, such as those imposed under article 232 of US commercial legislation.
American customs duties of 50 % on steel and aluminum, for example, will have considerable repercussions in these sectors in the future, warned Claire Fan.
ACEUM still plays its role
At around 6 %, Canada’s effective rate is much lower than the cumulative rate that the other trade partners in the United States are currently faced, which the RBC estimates from around 15 to 17 %.
“This is the essential point, and that is why we are always one of the least subject to American customs duties at present,” said Ms. Fan.
She added that the exemption from compliance with ACEUM is the essential element that gives Canadian exporters a “competitive advantage” compared to other economies strongly subject to customs duties.
Adam Slater, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said in a report published Monday that, despite the huge uncertainty linked to trade in trade with the United States, Canada and Mexico could take advantage of ACEUM as long as it remains in force.
The trade agreement must also be renegotiated in 2026.
Oxford Economics estimates that the actual customs duties rate for China is 35 %, for Japan, at 15 %, and for the United Kingdom, 8 %, according to data from the United States Census Bureau in June.
For the firm, at 2.5 %, Canada’s effective rate rate is slightly lower than the RBC estimate based on the US census office, while Mexico is estimated at 4 %.
“If relatively low customs duties apparently paid for imports from Mexico and Canada persist, these two economies could take advantage of changes in supply chains, even if the uncertainties on the end of customs duties and the future of [l’ACEUM] will constitute short -term brakes, ”wrote Mr. Slater.