Who pays Donald Trump’s prices?

With $ 77 billion in revenues, customs duties have represented just over 1 % of federal revenues over the 2024 fiscal year. In comparison, federal income tax has brought in around $ 2,400 billion over the same period.

• Since the beginning of 2025, income from customs duties have been around 100 billion, including 27.2 billion in June in June ¹.
• Revenues from customs duties are one of the central arguments of the Republican administration to justify its trade policy, which intends to finance its tax cuts.
• According to the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, this amount could reach more than 300 billion by the end of the year ²which would represent around 4.5 % of the federal budget.
• According to estimates of the Congressional Budget Office, if customs duties remained in force, they would generate 2,300 billion in net revenue (which includes the drop in tax revenue due to negative effects on economic growth) between 2026 and 2035 ³.

One of the advantages of international trade is an increase in purchasing power for consumers and a cost reduction for companies that depend on imported inputs.

Thus, beyond the contradiction between the objectives of the commercial policy of the republican administration-on the one hand, generate revenues for the federal budget, and on the other, encourage reindustrialisation by making imports less attractive-the prices imposed by Trump should mainly affect the American consumer.

• The importer is legally responsible for the payment of customs duties on products imported upon arrival of goods on American territory. Rights are evaluated and perceived by the customs and border protection service.
• In the majority of cases, American consumers do not directly pay customs duties, but importers – retailers or wholesalers – generally reflect this cost in the final price of the product.
• According to the LAB budget of the University of Yale, American consumers are currently faced with an average active active customs rate of 18.7 %, the highest since 1933.

• The prices announced and implemented would thus lead, in the short term, a general price increase of 1.9 %, which would be equivalent to an average income loss of $ 2,500 per household. The most modest households would be proportionally more affected ⁴.
• If inflation has only increased slightly in May, to 2.4 % (compared to 2.3 % in April), companies seem to have, for the moment, protected American consumers by absorbing part of the costs ⁵ And by drawing from the stocks accumulated before the taxation of customs duties in April.
• In March, the United States’s trade deficit reached a record of $ 140.5 billion.

Members of the US administration have repeatedly said that customs duties would be paid by foreign countries. This statement implies that exporters would reduce the price of its products for the United States to absorb the cost of customs duties and thus maintain its market share in the United States.

• Kush Desai, the deputy spokesman for the White House, said that “the United States, the best and the largest market economy in the world, have the power to ensure that our business partners support the cost of customs duties in the end”.

A study on customs duties for Trump’s first mandate shows, however, that importers have borne almost 95 % of the costs of these prices ⁶.