An asteroid 60 meters in diameter could soon hit the moon. A shock of exceptional rarity, with very real consequences for the space around us.
We are used to seeing the moon as a peaceful, faithful, almost immutable companion. But in reality, she is the silent witness of a moving cosmos. And sometimes he takes a blow. Literally.
In a few years, we could be the direct witnesses of a lunar impact of a rare scale. An event which, according to specialists, only occurs once every 5,000 years. It is not a science fiction scenario: the object exists, it is called 2024 yr4and he could well Mark the lunar surface forever.
An asteroid closely monitored, with 4.3 % chance of hitting the Moon in 2032
Discovered in December 2024, 2024 yr4 measure 60 meters in diameter. First considered a danger to the earth, he quickly worried astronomers. At a time, He was even the most threatening known spatial objectwith more than 3 % risk of impact.
Fortunately, this scenario was dismissed. But the calculations have changed targets. Today, It is our lunar nights that are affected : According to the latest data from the James Webb telescope, This asteroid has 4.3 % chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032.
The energy released would be colossal: 6.5 TNT megatonnesenough to form a crater visible from eartha kilometer wide. Some even evoke a meteor rainor the arrival of new lunar meteorites in our atmosphere. Highly, certainly, but anything but trivial.
Satellites in danger: when a lunar shock threatens our technologies
What surprises in this scenario is not only the shock itself-this is what it could trigger around. Because the impact on the moon could cause a cloud of fine particles : dust, debris, ejectas. Invisible from the soil, but formidable up there.
According to a study relayed on Arxiv, These fragments from 0.1 to 10 mm could damage our satellites in low orbit. In one night, they would suffer the equivalent of ten years of micrometic impacts. And with them, all the systems that depend on the space: communications, weather, navigation, climate, scientific observation …
NASA remains cautious but attentive. The asteroid will be observable again in 2028. This will be an opportunity to check its trajectory, to refine the models, and perhaps, to prepare a response. Or at least, reinforced surveillance of space infrastructure.
This is not the end of the world, but perhaps the start of a new page of lunar history
This kind of event reminds us how much space is alive, unpredictable, and sometimes spectacular. An impact visible from the earth, caused by an unknown asteroid barely a year ago? It’s dizzying. And also, deeply fascinating.
As a science enthusiast, I find this scenario as worrying as it is exciting. Not for what he could destroy, but for what he could teach us. On the moon, on objects close to the earth, on our dependence on space, and on our ability to anticipate celestial risks.
In 2032, maybe we will look up at the moon … knowing that it has just been struck. And perhaps, for the first time in human history, We will see live the scars left by the universe on our satellite.
