On Friday August 15, 2025, Donald Trump will welcome Vladimir Putin in Alaska to “settle” the war in Ukraine. As these lines were written, no one knew if Volodymyr Zelensky will have a voice in the chapter or if of his representatives will be admitted to the room where the discussions will be held.
What we know even less are the peripheral questions that will be discussed there, their impact on Canada and the means that Canada has to defend its national interests in the themes that will be addressed to it.
It is known: Donald Trump boasts of being a large negotiator, to the point of having devoted a work to his method – a “user manual” which deals with negotiation techniques carrying his successes.
It is utopian to think that by inviting Vladimir Putin to meet him, Donald Trump has only the fate of Ukraine in mind. He will probably go to seek something from Russia in exchange for the eyes which he will agree to close on the aggression against Ukraine, as well as on war crimes and against humanity, perpetrated by the Russian leader. What can interest the United States in this context?
Cap on the north
Rumors that filter American pharmacies refer to the Arctic a lot. It is therefore not trivial that the summit takes place in Alaska, the basis of American interests in this area of the globe. Russia, which is to be there in a way the “neighbor opposite”, shares, even argument, the same interests.
Here, predominant questions are those of security, the exploitation of natural resources and the control of sea routes. All questions that could oppose the two interlocutors, but who, in reality, could in fact promote their alliance in the face of a common third party – let’s not immediately speak of enemy: China.
In recent years, the Middle Empire has indeed repeatedly stated its intention to be an important player in the Nordic regions: it has installed a research station in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard in 2004; asked for the status of observer at the Arctic Council in 2007 and obtained it in 2013; Its ships passed through both the passage from the North East (2013) and by the Northwest Passage and Canadian Waters (2017); And, the following year, China published a statement of its policy (white paper) on the Arctic.
If Trump and Putin make a deal About the Arctic in order to rule out China, will they take Canadian interests in consideration? To ask the question is to answer it.
Already that the United States does not recognize Canadian sovereignty over the northwest passage and that the Canadian-American maritime borders of the region are still the subject of arguments between the two countries, there is only to add the annexationist hints of a megalomaniac and stubborn president and we have the perfect recipe for obscuring all Canadian claims.
What answer will Mark Carney be able to bring to this, tacit, but pressing threat to the national interests of Canada?
A precarious position
From the outset, Canada comes to the stick with two sockets against it. Even if the Harper government had clearly made the Arctic one of its foreign policy priorities, it neglected to establish and feed useful, if necessary, alliances, to the defense of its interests.
As for the recent Trudeau government, after a personal reception by star rock and young first, when the Prime Minister’s star pale to the point of practically disappearing from important decision -making circles, the country followed this fall in the shadows.
When he arrived in office, Mark Carney played his cards in a strategic way by tightening in particular Canada’s ties with the United Kingdom, France and the European Union. However, he showed a lamentable weakness against the tenant of the White House, granting him everything he asked without obtaining anything in return. The situation even deteriorated later, according to Trumpian moods.
If Canada had to raise their tone in the face of this possible panarctic alliance which would exclude it, would we receive another salvo of prices through a decree signed with a lot of video extracts intended for Fox News to seduce the Maga database of Donald Trump?
Canada must therefore act upstream of this summit to let know-first in Washington, then to all of its relatives in Europe, but also in Oceania, since Australia and New Zealand have strategic relations with Washington-that it is unacceptable that deal is done on his back. In addition, Canada must be ready to clearly state a position that it will be able to defend firmly, precisely of these supports which it has been able to materialize.
It is therefore necessary to hope that, from the Lester-B.-Pearson building to the main Canadian diplomatic delegations, we take the threat very seriously that this Alaska summit can weigh on the country. Otherwise, Donald Trump will no longer have to threaten to annex Canada: he will have done it without a shot.
